Democrats have floored their ‘enthusiasm’ accelerator in the past month.
Kamala is now six points up on Trump. Trump has been reduced to handing out burgers in a bar in NYC’s Greenwich Village…in a state where he trails Harris by ten points.
Before Harris, only 40% of Democratic voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting; now three-quarters of them are eager for this contest (compared to about half of Republicans). This is a huge boost, from a 17-point GOP edge to a 9-point Democratic one.
I am sure that Kamala would want the spotlight shared: her VP candidate Tim Walz is also more popular than JD Vance.
But Harris has been attracting new numbers of Democratic voters to the polls ever since she was chosen as their preferential candidate.
They include a rush of women voters. In the two years since the Supreme Court ignored the will of the people and reversed the Roe decision on women’s right, a number of red and blue states have put out abortion-related ballot initiatives. In each case abortion access has won, from California to Kentucky, Kansas to Maine, Ohio to Vermont.
Now influential women are adding jet fuel to her blaze. Taylor Swift’s endorsement (400-million+ fans) has triggered half-a-million people to register to vote. She has been joined by pop stars Billie Eilish and Finneas. Fox News actually reported about a slew of high-ranking Republicans who will be backing Kamala.
Even the normally dry world of science is climbing on-board: for only the second time in 179 years, Scientific American magazine has back her for the presidential bid. Its editorial said that Trump "endangers public health and safety and rejects evidence, preferring instead nonsensical conspiracy fantasies…He ignores the climate crisis in favor of more pollution. He requires that federal officials show personal loyalty to him rather than upholding U.S. laws. He fills positions in federal science and other agencies with unqualified ideologues. He goads people into hate and division.”
You want to goad the quiet nerds into action? You promote fantasy instead of science.
Trump’s name-calling, cognitive decline and reality-denial can be seen in this one typical post after the debate:
Trump’s reality denial notwithstanding, a boost at the polls for Kamala is not in isolated event; it provides a lift to the races in all the Congressional seats.
In Iowa, for example, Harris has pulled roughly equal to Trump, cutting Trump’s lead to 4 points. This may sound like a large hill to climb…but she has already surged up 18 points, trampling Trump’s previously comfortable 50% to 32% lead.
Iowa could now be considered a swing state, as it has a history of going Democratic: in 2000, 2008 and 2012.
Harris owes her surge in Iowa to female voters, where she leads Trump 53% to 36%. Trump leads among men in the state 59% to 32%.
Critically, women also say they are more likely to vote in this election, with 8% more women indicating they will vote.
Other groups that showed an uptick in plans to vote included those younger than 45 (10% increase), those from cities (6%), and those with a college degree (9%). Those are all Harris troops. In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris’ 4-point edge over Donald Trump is the biggest lead Democrats have enjoyed for president all year. Wisconsin was decided by less than one percentage point in the last two elections, going with Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
In normally solid-red Texas, the contest between Ted Cruz and Democrat Rep. Colin Allred has actually turned into a contest! Texas has been won by Republicans in smaller and smaller and smaller numbers every cycle. Cruz barely fended off challenger Beto O’Rourke by 3 points last time around. Now, polls have Cruz nudging ahead by between 2-4%. VP candidate Tim Walz said to Allred “You’ve got a Senate race you can win”. Republican Liz Cheney, former rep for Wyoming, praised Allred as “a tremendous, serious candidate.” Though Cruz has a bigger campaign fund, Allred is rapidly catching up.
Trump led Biden by 9 points before Harris came along; now he is still leading but the lead has been cut in half, to just 4 points.
Even in Trump’s residential state of Florida, the abortion ballot initiative will appear on the state's ballot this year; that could lift voter turnout and enthusiasm for pro-abortion rights candidates and favor Democrats. The Jacksonville mayoral office flipped to the Democrats for the first time in 30 years, based on the abortion vote. “Florida is winnable," insists Florida Democratic Party spokesperson Andrew Feldman.
Georgia and North Carolina have shifted to “toss-up” status.
Even Alaska – solidly Republican for six decades – is shifting blue. Nate Silver, the founder of the Silver Bulletin polling analysis, said that his model has been "bullish" on Harris' chances of winning Alaska.
In other critical swing states, Harris now leads Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Another upward indicator for the Democrats is fundraising: in August alone Harris raised $500-million (compared to Trump’s $130-million). Call it roughly a five-to-one advantage.
That bump for Kamala from the entertainment world is part of the Harris advantage; 53% of American adults say they are fans of Taylor Swift, with 16% saying they are ‘avid’ fans. Swift's post has been met with millions of likes which include several celebrities such as Reese Witherspoon, Selena Gomez, Ellen DeGeneres, and Jennifer Aniston. Studies show that celebrity endorsements can add 3% to a candidate's base. That would make perfect sense: Kamala now has a 6% lead…so it is working!
And Aubrey Plaza has also endorsed Kamala, while holding a cat with a character-appropriate expression. She has 5 million followers on Instagram alone.
Trump, BTW, has never owned a pet. He once told an audience that he wouldn’t mind one, “but honestly I don’t have any time.”
He spent more than 250 days at Trump golf clubs during his presidency, but I suppose a golf ball is easier to take care of than a dog.
Just to break out of the polling and funding cycles for a moment, and gain overall perspective, the ‘Nostradamus’ of American elections, Allan Lichtman, is forecasting a Harris win. His model has an unmatched track record, predicting every election since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1985, when his approval ratings were at rock bottom.
Given all that upward pressure for Harris, I would expect a 5% lift in each District of the House and Senate for the Democrats. Since Harris took over, senate Democratic incumbents have been ahead in almost every single publicly released poll except in the red state of Montana.
33 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested this year. 19 are Republican. There are 5 of them which would fall to the Democrats under the “5% shift” idea: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas.
That would leave the Republicans with a drop to 14 from their current total of 19 seats in the current election. The overall party division now is 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Independents (who caucus with the Democrats). VP Kamala Harris has the tie-breaking vote, so the Senate is controlled by the Democrats. After the November elections that control will increase, as 5 seats migrate to the Blue.
The coming Senate score will be Democrats 53, Republicans 45, and 2 independent players who vote Democratic.
In the House of Representatives there are 453 seats: Republicans have 221 and Democrats have 213. All of them are up for election. I would expect all Democratic seats to remain with their party, and any Republican seats where the win in the last election was less than 55% to flip Democratic. That encompasses 1 seat in Alaska, 1 in Arizona, 7 in California, 1 in Colorado, 2 in Florida, 1 in Illinois, 1 in Indiana, 1 in Iowa, 1 in Kansas, 1 in Michigan, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Missouri, 1 in Nebraska, 1 in New Hampshire, 1 in New Jersey, 1 in New Mexico, 4 in New York, 2 in North Carolina, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Ohio, 1 in Pennsylvania, 1 in South Carolina, 7 in Texas, 1 in Utah, and 1 in Virginia.
That’s a total of 43 seats the Republicans will lose in the House in the coming election.
The new House balance will be 256 Democrats to 178 Republicans.
Just to repeat: the Senate balance will be 53 Democrats to 45 Republicans.
This kind of imbalance is rarely seen; it is comparable to the Johnson majority in 1964 when Democrats outnumbered Republicans 295-140 in the House of Representatives and 68-32 in the Senate. Johnson had one of the most productive congresses in American history, including passage of the Civil Rights Act.
Kamala should be able to pass any legislation she wants.
Including, perhaps, a revisit of the tenure of members of the Supreme Court.
And just to put a cork on the removal of the abortion ban, she can get a nationwide law passed, as she has pledged to do.
Are Trump’s boys going to riot in the streets?
No.
When he was in court for his other crimes, no one showed up.
His crowd sizes are pathetic. Only Laura Loomer is impressed by his sizes. ‘Nuff said.
Trump is driving the Republican Party off the cliff.
When this is over, he can watch from his jail cell as the party re-groups, away from his family influence and the faded cries of his once-proud supporters. A diminishing force with each election, White Supremacy is being stamped out. No more Trumps and his racist tropes.
But for Trump, it’s not all bad news. He will be in prison with his January rioters, and they can hold morale-boosting sing-alongs.
Unless it’s snowing in the prison yard.
Then maybe Trump can wear the blankie that Hillary will send him.
Because you can bet he won’t get one from Melania. In fact, I bet he hasn’t gotten one from Melania in a long time.
But that’s another story…
There is one thing I suggest that Kamala should do when she takes office.
Officially re-name South Ocean Boulevard in Palm Beach, “Joe Biden Boulevard”.
It honor a man of principle.
It also runs right in front of Mar a Lago.
This is what you get when you mess with a Lady, Donald!
She’ll be in your face for the rest of your life.
I liked this article I sure hope your right on, I'm think so for the most part, keep up the good articles and I'll be reading them
I’m a lifelong Republican, now voting for Kamala/Tim! PLEASE share this short post with a MAGA friend or family member—it offers a unique, eye-opening perspective that truly has the potential to wake people up.
https://open.substack.com/pub/donovanwashere/p/15-clear-signs-that-youve-either?r=13lrsx&utm_medium=ios