Russia Crumbles In The Crimea
On the evening of March 23 — by chance, the same night as ISIS opened fire in a theater in Moscow — a series of explosions were heard in Crimea.
Russian news media were headlining the Moscow attack, but the Crimea attack was described by the Russians it as the most massive attack in Crimea in recent times.
14 of the 30 largest oil refineries in Russia were damaged In central Crimea, when the oil depot in Hvardiiske was hit by strike drones.
According to UK Defense Intelligence, recent strikes against refineries have likely disrupted at least 10 per cent of Russia’s refinery capacity. Major repairs could take considerable time and expense. Sanctions are increasing the time and cost of sourcing replacement equipment.
Some of the facilities attacked are approximately 900 km from Ukraine, showing the huge increase in range now available through Ukraine’s domestic drone innovation program.
In addition, the Russians shut down the Crimean Bridge: “The movement of vehicles across the Crimean Bridge is temporarily closed. Those who are on the bridge and in the inspection zone are asked to remain calm and follow the instructions of the transport security staff.”
That’s what I’d want to hear, sitting in my unmoving car on an exposed ribbon in an 18-km-long target.
Further down the coast, there was more bad naval news.
In addition to the oil depots, Ukrainian missiles hit ships in Sevastopol.
The ships were used by the Russians to transport military equipment and supplies to the peninsula.
Ukraine struck two Russian Ropucha-class landing ships, “Yamal” and “Azov,” in occupied Crimea in the late hours of March 23.
“Yamal,” with 98 crew members, and “Azov,” with 87 crew members, belonged to the 197th Landing Ships Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and were actively used in the fleet’s exercises and training, according to the fleet’s website.
The Ukraine has now sunk six landing ships; there are only three more to go for a full sweep.
The landing ships are the most dangerous vessels to Ukraine, for they can make a surprise occupation of any part of the coast of the country.
Or at least, they used to be able to.
The landing ships are the largest in the Russian fleet. Once the final three landing ships are sunk, there will be no more “capital” ships flying the Russian flag.
The ships were built at Gdansk’s Stocznia Polnocna Shipyard in Poland during the Cold War and used to support sea-to-land military assault operations. Russia does not have in-country expertise in this kind of construction.
Russia is redeploying its Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Novorossiysk, where a Ukrainian sea drone traveled 600 km just after the Russians made the transfer, and sank a major ship. You can run but you can’t hide.
The Black Sea is a bathtub owned by Ukraine.
The Strategic Communications Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (StratCom) recently reported that as of early February 2024, 33% of the fleet’s warships had been disabled including 24 ships and one submarine.
Since July, Ukraine is now averaging one destroyed warship every 3 weeks.
Yes, the Ukrainians sank a submarine, without having a navy of their own.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a visit to Sevastopol said Black Sea Fleet ships would be armed with heavy-caliber machine guns to help destroy Ukrainian sea drones.
That those weapons were not a standard part of Soviet/Russian naval practice shows how little the land-locked nation understands about maritime tactics.
Overall, due to the increased number of military facilities in Crimea, as well as the use of the peninsula as a transportation hub for supplying Russian Armed Forces units with equipment and weapons, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased the number of attacks on all military facilities located there.
Not content with sinking ships, a communications hub was also a target for a successful strike.
According to Mikhail Razvozhaev, governor of Sevastopol, this was the most massive attack in recent times.
The naval communication hub and infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were hit in a cloud of smoke and fire by Storm Shadow missiles. The Missiles also destroyed a warehouse with missile and artillery weapons used by a Russian marine brigade.
Among those “eliminated” in the attack was the Russian colonel Vadim Nailyovich Ismagilov, Commander of the 3rd Signals Intelligence Regiment.
The Russians said that the smoke was a means of camouflage for their troops, and that some fires were set by falling debris.
At the same time, the Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine Mykola Oleshchuk thanked the pilots and sailors for their successful work on his Telegram channel.
“The sky and the sea are the same color! Crimea is ours! Together to victory!” he wrote.
Putin has said he is going to retaliate, but he is falling behind on his retaliations — especially since ISIS-K bombed the Crocus Centre in Moscow.
With the crippling of its navy, if the Crimea Bridge were to be destroyed by Ukraine, it would put the Russian defenders in a very awkward position.
There is a road that runs along the East Coast of occupied Crimea, but it is of limited flow capacity and it is easily blocked.
The conundrum for the Russians is that they need a powerful military presence in Crimea to hold their position, but the more troops they have in the peninsula, the worse the supply situation will be. More troops, in a sense, just means more hostages to feed until they have to surrender.
At the moment however, Ukraine does not have the weapons necessary to collapse the bridge. Germany has not given Ukraine Taurus missiles, nor has the US given Ukraine long range ATACMS and have intentionally slowed Ukraine’s obtaining F-16’s for the very reason that they know Ukraine can and will very likely use anyone of these weapons systems to knock down that bridge. The US and Germany both have apparently been swayed by Putin’s threats and that is why they have denied Taurus and ATACMS.
Of course, Ukraine is likely to innovate its own solution. They are good at it.
For my money, that bridge has a limited lifetime.
Overall, the Russians don’t have a clue about where or what Ukraine will strike next. The initiative is totally in Ukraine’s hands. Putin’s units are waiting passively to get hit, somewhere and sometime not of their choosing.
This does not sound like a “winning” military strategy — but then again, I’m not a military genius like Putin.
At the moment, if Russia plans to annex the Black Sea next, it will have to get all its drowned sailors new waterproof Russian passports.
Speaking of death brings up a fundamental difference between the two sides. Unlike their Russian counterparts, whose bombardment of Ukraine has been conspicuous by its blitz on civilian life, the Ukrainians pointed out that military facilities located in Crimea are the only legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In other words, Russian civilians are off-limits. That is one reason why Putin’s claim that the Crocus bombing was done by Ukraine is totally false: Ukraine does not target civilians.
Mind you, Ukraine can now safely rely on some of Russia’s other “earned enemies” like ISIS, to deal with the illegitimate targets in Russia.
ISIS has one advantage — Putin can’t threaten to nuke it. It’s everywhere. In every corner of Chechnya where 300,000 people were killed by his artillery. In every street in Afghanistan where Soviet soldiers drove their tanks. In the dusty roads of Syria, where Putin’s Wagner Group executed Muslims needlessly. Across the Sahel in Africa, where Wagner Group still fights to this day.
Putin just can’t help continuing to make enemies.
He’s like a short version of Donald Trump.
And just like Donald, Putin is losing his properties every day, a bit at a time.
Some day, one of his peers will wake up and realize that the emperor has no clothes.
Then we will find out what his retirement plan amounts to.
Probably something like Prighozin’s.
Sudden decompression and a fall from a great height.
Written by Barry Gander
A Canadian from Connecticut: 2 strikes against me! I'm a top writer, looking for the Meaning under the headlines. Follow me on Mastodon @Barry
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