Russian Soldiers Are In A Dark Space
Morale plummets while Ukrainians remain confident despite Russian strikes on civilians.
Seemingly unrelated news stories yesterday had a common base: a Russian air strike destroyed a Ukrainian power plant and cases of Russian desertion have jumped. They share a common element: the morale of both sides is at stake. And here is where the deeper news in the war needs to be sought: aerial videos unveil a new depth of despair among some Russian soldiers.
A Russian missile strike destroyed one of Ukraine’s largest thermal power plants. The Trypilska plant supplied electricity to three million customers. If the Russians had been competent they would have hit the plant in the wintertime, but as it is no one lost power because the grid was able to compensate since demands are low at this time of year. Other strikes on power plants that have been hit before were able to cut power to 200,000 people, prompting Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko to acknowledge that “they affected our energy sector very badly.” The situation is affected by Ukraine’s shortage of air defences. The country is no longer relying solely on America but has tightened relations with its EU colleagues; the European Parliament has pledged to supply Ukraine with Patriot anti-missile systems.
The lesson from other wars shows that civilian morale, while strained, is not deflected by enemy bombardment; if anything, resolve grows. The Ukrainian polls (see below) seem to confirm this.
Western nations are also trying to deal with a new problem: a vast and growing diaspora of Russians leaving the country since Putin’s invasion. Cases of desertion by Russian soldiers have jumped six-fold in the past year, with requests for help from soldiers rising to one-third of the appeals to a group run by Grigory Sverdlin, a Russian activist in the Republic of Georgia: “Obviously, Russian propaganda is trying to sell us a story that all Russia supports Putin and his war. But that’s not true.”
On the battlefield, the morale issue runs deep as a problem on the Russian side.
When some Russian soldiers hear Ukrainian drones overhead, they arrange for grenade-assisted suicide in case the drones only wound them. One soldier (pictured below) carefully prepared two grenades by pulling out the pins; a drone overhead dropped a bomb, and then the grenades went off, finishing the job and killing the soldier.
How desperate do you have to be to not only accept death but prepare to help it along?
Perhaps he was realistic; I’ve never been in a trench facing uneven odds of death. But I would think that most people – especially soldiers – would put their energy into making sure that the enemy bomb does not fall on them in the first place.
But that is not what this Russian soldier did. His mind had given up hope, after days in an environment of death, watching comrades die in pain.
Combat stress is particularly difficult to control. It is fueled by so many variables, such as morale, cohesion, fatigue, confidence, training and the intensity of the combat. Studies show that positive measures need to be taken before combat, such as education, training and building unit cohesion. To ensure that the positive spirit is maintained, respites from the fighting are needed. While fear is the chief cause of battlefield stress, training, group unity and leadership determine the extent to which the fear will affect the individual soldier.
Inadequate training has long been an issue for the Russian military. Its “human wave” tactics, for example, betray a form of assault that has given up on skill and relies solely on masses of men rushing forward. As a French general said in WWI, “three men and a machine gun can stop a battalion of heroes.”
And it does not take very long for that message to seep into every Russian soldier: ‘You are expendable and we don’t care if you survive.’
The people who do care – the wives and mothers of the soldiers – are increasingly upset with the way Putin is dragging on this war. They have become a powerful force of dissent, arguing that their loved ones are ill-used or deserve to return home after years of war. Instead of reassuring them, the Russian military has threatened the soldiers, telling them that if their loved ones do not back down, the soldiers will be sent immediately into combat.
The soldiers themselves are getting increasingly angry and they frequently complain about a lack of basic equipment and training. "There's no fucking 'dying the death of the brave' here," one soldier in the Kharkiv region told his brother, "You just die like a fucking earthworm."
Casey Christie, the Managing Director of Christie and Associates in London, is a respected figure in the world of international security affairs. He has reviewed the suicide-by-grenade phenomenon, and says:
“This alarming behavior is an unambiguous indication of an army in crisis – demoralized, leaderless, and drifting. The lack of proper medical care and evacuation protocols have left these soldiers feeling abandoned and without hope. It is a tragic and heart-wrenching sight – a spectacle that stresses the urgent need for continued support for Ukraine in their fight against Russian aggression.”
He adds that it spotlights the fact that the Ukrainians are not facing a disciplined and committed enemy - rather they are conscripts and bewildered civilians forced into war. They have no faith in their commanders or the purpose of the fight.
He speculates that as soon as Moscow finds out about this gruesome method of escape from the battlefield, instead of solving the problem it will no longer issue grenades to the conscripts.
This is not an isolated incident. Here are videos from Reddit about other suicides:
Wagner commander “Cherdash” kill’s himself after being wounded by drone. November, 2022
Here is one where a wounded Russian in a foxhole kills himself with a grenade. December, 2022
Russian soldiers in foxhole is wounded by grenade, shoots self. ADAM Group, May, 2023
(Wounded?) Russian laying in trench shoots self. June, 2023
Wounded Russian in foxhole shoots at drone, then shoots self. July, 2023
Soldier laying prone puts grenade to face and pulls pin. Drone footage. August, 2023
Wounded soldier appears to shoot self in view of allies taking cover in trench. November, 2023
Russian soldier near vehicle is hit by drone dropped grenade. Shoots self in head while laying feet from comrade. December, 2023 plus alternate angle video of same event. December, 2023
Russian soldier in shell hole, possibly wounded, shoots self. No further detail, December 2023
Fighters of the 25th separate assault battalion of the 47th OMBr drone drop munition on Russian soldiers. One commits suicide after being hit. Near Stepove, Avdiivka front. December, 2023 plus alternate, longer version with unit badges
Russian soldier is wounded by grenade drop, shoots self. thermal view from drone. January 2024.
Russian soldier fleeing from drone decides to commit suicide with hand grenade. January 2024
What do these soldiers know that Putin does not?
They know that they are in a war they cannot win.
Ukraine has now re-captured more than half (54%) of the land the Russians took in their invasion.
The fighting is desperate now, as Ukraine is running out of supplies thanks to America’s problem with Republicans, but the Ukrainians have two things going for them: numbers and nerve.
Ukraine has mobilized and armed 2.2 million soldiers. When it split from Russia, it also inherited about 30% of the Soviet military industry.
Russia has 470,000 soldiers in Ukraine, drawn from a civilian reserve that is 3.7 times larger than that of the Ukraine. If they can’t be properly armed and trained, they are of as much use to Putin as if they were on the far side of Mars. And Russia has incurred approximately $54.88 billion in equipment losses over the course of relentless warfare in Ukraine.
For the current Russian attack to succeed, Putin needs numbers that can emulate Stalin when he fought against Hitler. Hitler had earmarked three million German troops to invade Russia. Approximately one million attacked the Ukraine area. They had 19 panzer divisions with 3,000 tanks, plus 2,500 aircraft, and 7,000 artillery pieces They captured it in two months, three weeks and five days.
It took 29-million Russian fighters to finally eject the German troops. That’s almost a ten-to-one ratio of Russians needed to eject Germans.
This is not a comment on Russian courage, merely on the lack of Russian skill. When your big tactic is attacking in waves across the open ground, you will bleed a lot.
So assume that you, as a Russian leader, know you need ten Russian soldiers to fight each single enemy soldier. Fast forward to February, 2022.
Putin used an invading army of 200,000. Ukraine had some 500,000 troops at that time, well trained after their humiliating loss of Crimea, and very highly motivated. In fact, as soon as the Russians invaded, more than half the Ukrainian population volunteered for the army.
As noted, it now numbers more than two million servicepeople – substantially outnumbering the Russian forces.
And to get his ten-to-one odds, Putin needs 20 million soldiers.
He is shy of that by a ten-fold amount.
Plus Ukrainian civilians now have huge social cohesion, with more than 90% of them trusting the President. They are self-organizing; 1500 NGOs have emerged in the crises.
And 98% of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine’s victory.
This is where that second ingredient, nerve, comes in.
The military guru Carl Von Clausewitz said that because war is the realm of danger, courage is the soldier's first requirement.
Even in cities occupied by Russia, such as Kherson when the Russians held it, Ukrainians keep marching and protesting against the invading army's presence and in support of the unity of Ukraine.
Courage means taking a worthwhile risk.
Worth, or value, is something that Ukrainians can readily see. Their Russian opponents are bereft of that “cause’; that ingredient.
Just by staying in Ukraine and not fleeing to safety, President Zelensky showcased the courage of his people.
When one of his generals went astray and attacked him, Putin raced out of Moscow and hid in his palace 30 km from the Finnish border. You know…in case he had to leave the country.
Ukrainian soldiers understand that courage is not a lack of fear; it's something you do in spite of being scared. The pace of death in this war is frightening for anyone: it has 2-3 times the casualties of Vietnam and it equals the Korean War.
If you are afraid, and have nothing to fight for, you reach for the grenades.
Ukraine is not even asking for soldiers, but for the tools to defend themselves – weapons and ammunition. With these resources, they can continue to push back against Russian aggression and protect their sovereignty. They can win.
Their example is stiffening spines across Europe.
France is calling for boots-on-the-ground to directly help Ukraine. It has been echoed by the Baltic countries, including Poland.
Lithuania has offered to dismantle its closed thermal power plants and provide spare parts to restore the Ukrainian energy system.
Russia on the other hand is even running out of armoured vehicles. Since the beginning of the war, 7,087 tanks have been destroyed. More than two-thirds of those Russian tanks have been destroyed by Ukraine’s first-person-view (FPV) drones. FPV drones have become nearly ubiquitous; they can carry 10 pounds of explosives and after nearly 800 days of nonstop war, drone pilots have gotten plenty of practice. And the drones are cheap: they are off-the-shelf drones that go for $400.
Samuel Bendett, an advisor at the Center for Naval Analysis, stated that “It’s possible that any vehicle, any system, any soldier that moves on the Ukrainian battlefield right now can be seen, observed, and ultimately hit with a [unmanned aerial vehicle). There’s no such thing as just moving around uncontested anymore.”
No wonder the Russian soldiers feel a certain overbearing dread. Their commitment toa positive cause is not enough to help pull them through the edge of night.
Ukraine is fighting for the sunlight on the other side.
It’s making all the difference.
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