As the election debate between Desperate Don and President Biden comes close (June 27th), Trump is stressing his central theme that the last election was “stolen”.
In fact, he struggled for months to steal the election himself, as revealed by a partner-in-crime who has been caught on tape planning to steal it!
A secret tape recording of “dirty trickster” (his words) Roger Stone reveals that Stone and other Trump allies are preparing to use "lawyers, judges, technology" and “every lever we can” to challenge the results of the November 2024 election if Trump loses. He wants to cause chaos, so no one knows who to believe. Stone tried to turn the accusation around, arguing "Why do leftists so fear a free, fair, honest, transparent 2024 election?"
He noted that the Trump campaign is attempting to change state voting laws and plans to immediately file a number of lawsuits seeking to change the results should the former president lose again. He said that Trump even has Governors standing by – though he regretted “not many” – ready to contest November’s results.
On a side-note: Stone predicted that Florida judge Aileen Canon – appointed by Trump – would have the document-theft case thrown out; she has just now charged that the prosecutor has no right to be involved in the case. Stone must be psychic, because otherwise we would have to assume that there is a functioning network of people orchestrating the demise of democracy.
Stone’s kind of bizarre twist is the habitual script for the Trump Gang: take the crime that you are committing and brazenly accuse the other side of committing it.
Here is the reality check we can all start with: the 2020 election was not stolen and Trump knows it.
Ken Block, whom the Trump campaign hired in 2020 to find voter fraud in the election, penned an op-ed Tuesday stating unequivocally that the 2020 presidential election was not stolen and that there was no evidence of voter fraud sufficient to change the outcome of the election. Block owns Simpatico Software Systems and sent his findings directly to Mark Meadows, Trump’s Chief of Staff.
It is Trump’s habit to go into denial whenever he loses an election, blaming the result on one fraud or another. Fraud would be a natural accusation for him to reach for. He has been a failure as a real estate magnate who was re-cast as a success on a TV show; he was a billionaire playboy charged with sexual abuse; and of course a law-and-order politician convicted of 34 felonies (so far, as Homer Simpson would say).
A congressional panel investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol stated that Trump knew that his election fraud allegations were false. According to Democratic Congresswoman Zoe Lofgrenv “The election fraud claims were false. Mr. Trump’s closest advisers knew it. Mr. Trump knew it.”
Steve Clemons, veteran US journalist and host of The Bottom Line on Al Jazeera, stressed that Trump was deliberate in his attempt to overturn the election based on false election fraud claims: “President Trump was not uninformed, not deluded…this was a purposeful, directed attempt to hijack power from the people who had won the election.”
Former Acting Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue has said he told Trump that election fraud accusations were false, but each time the Justice Department would dismiss one fraud claim, the former president would bring up another one.
“I told him flat-out that much of the information he’s getting is false and/or just not supported by the evidence,” Donoghue says in a video. “We look at the allegations, but they don’t pan out.”
The very fact that Trump started making the claim on election night, before any facts could be known, displays fantasy and frenetic denial.
All of Trump’s lawyers and campaign advisers and the attorney general of the United States said exactly same thing: There was no basis to any of the allegations about electoral corruption.
Evidently the Republican elected officials had no personal doubt that the vote was fair. Not one Republican office-holder who objected to Biden’s victory has objected to their own win, on the same day, on the same ballots, using the same election systems.
On the flip side, there should be no doubt about who was guilty for the attack on the Capitol Building:
Belief that there is proof of election steal has been deflating, dropping among Republicans from 75% believing that there is proof to 52% (2023). However, two-thirds of Republicans still believe (2023), regardless of evidence, that the election was stolen anyway - though that is down from 71% in 2021.
This is a hard bridge to cross: To stop believing that the election was stolen, you would have to admit that you were wrong…one of the toughest things to do.
So Trump keeps reiterating the message, to reassure his troops. Few of them recall that this is an old theme by Trump, reaching back years.
Trump has been hitting the “election fraud” button on almost every campaign he or his designates have lost:
Nov. 2012: Trump warned of voting machines switching votes to Obama from Romney;
Feb. 2016: Trump blamed Ted Cruz’ win in Iowa on voter fraud;
Nov. 2016: Despite defeating Hillary Clinton he tweeted about “millions of FRAUD votes”;
Nov. 2018: Trump claimed fraud in Senate votes in many states because of “electoral corruption”;
Nov. 2020: The classic case of ongoing fraud claims begins, with years of rehearsals to draw on.
In 2024, the claim has the additional value of being a money-making platform for the presidential election. Trump and his allies raised nearly $250m in the weeks following the election based on fraud allegations.
By way of contrast, a book called Cyberwar has definitively concluded that it is probable that Russian hackers and trolls were responsible for Trump’s razor’s edge win in 2016, when 70,000 votes could have swung the Electoral College to Clinton. If there ever was a “stop the steal”, the finger should point at Trump.
Trump is a pathological liar and sociopath. For all the elected Republicans to follow him is, as Robert Reich asserts, “organized treason…lies that cut to the core of our entire system of self-government. They undermine belief in our democracy and system of justice.”
Cries of “foul” are not new in elections. In 1824, before the two-party system became the norm, there was a four-way fight between Secretary of State John Quincy Adams, Treasury Secretary William Crawford, House Speaker Henry Clay of Kentucky and Tennessee populist Andrew Jackson. After the vote-count, Jackson led, but lacked a majority. The outcome then went to the House, where each state’s delegation casts one vote for president. After some behind-the-scenes maneuvering, two states defected and voted for Adams, throwing him the presidency. The public reaction was bitter: Clay was burned in effigy in Pittsburgh. Jackson “quickly called Clay ‘the Judas of the West’ ” and led a “political holy war” against him. Media like the New York Herald alleged that the 1871 election “was in violation of the will of the people and gave rise to grave suspicions.”
Lincoln’s re-election campaign in 1864 turned up a scheme by supporters of his rival General George McClellan to forge mail-in ballots from Union soldiers serving on the front line. The plotters formed an assembly line in DC, passing blank papers along to one another to be signed with the names of active enlisted men, wounded and dead soldiers, and officers who never existed. The scheme was discovered and squashed, but not before they had shipped crates of fraudulent votes to NY. Lincoln won by 221 electoral votes to 21, so the scheme was a non-starter anyway, but the men in charge were sentenced to life in prison.
This could serve as an historic benchmark for those who try to manipulate an election – say, by attacking a federal building or trying to alter the votes in Georgia – a sentence no less than life in prison.
It was even messier in 1876 when Democratic candidate Samuel J. Tilden appeared to have edged out Republican Rutherford B. Hayes. By 1876 – 11 years after the end of the Civil War – all the Confederate states had been readmitted to the Union. The Republicans were strongest in the pro-Union areas of the North and African-American regions of the South, while Democratic support came from southern whites.
On Election Day, there was widespread voter intimidation against African-American Republican voters throughout the South. There were disputed results from South Carolina, Louisiana and Florida. Nerves grew strained. President Ulysses S. Grant actually deployed U.S. troops around Washington to safeguard the capital. A biased commission that had been selected to adjudicate the process eventually settled on Hayes, by an 8-7 vote. Tilden received 50.1 percent of the popular vote, but Hayes was elected president by a single electoral vote.
As part of the bargain, the parties ended Reconstruction and the post-Civil War commitment to defend the civil and political rights of the former slaves.
The Kennedy-Nixon election of 1960 was also a battleground. The election was decided by the electoral vote of the state of Illinois, which, in turn, went for Nixon - except for one pocket of votes in Chicago. A number of Chicago precincts were controlled by Mayor Richard J. Daley, and they went for Kennedy. Altogether, Kennedy got a 9,000 vote win in the state over Nixon. Republicans demanded a recount there and in Texas, but nothing was done.
In 2004 Robert Kennedy Jr. claimed that Ohio election officials had made decisions that stole the election from Democratic candidate John Kerry. If Kerry had won Ohio’s electoral votes, he would have defeated Republican president George W. Bush. Democrats pushed that view for a time, but were unable to get redress.
Then there was the messy Bush-Gore election, where Florida was the turn-point. The networks awarded the state to Gore, making him the likely winner of the election. Several hours later, as returns threw that projection into doubt, they reversed themselves and called Florida for Bush. A third reversal came early Wednesday morning: With Gore suddenly gaining ground, the networks decided the state was too close to call. Newspapers scrambling to make deadlines put the wrong winner on their front page.
Poor design of the placement of names on the ballot form in Florida, combined with a technical flaw that made a voter’s procedure awkward (did you punch the paper all the way through?) led to many interpretations of the vote. Many people voted for Pat Buchanan, thinking they were voting for Al Gore.
The selection of president of the United States came down to one county, and the number of voters that could fit in the ballroom of a hotel. A re-count was underway when a demonstration of Republican operatives forced canvassers in Miami-Dade County to halt their efforts. The demonstration was organized by Roger Stone (cure evil music theme). The Democratic Party Chairman Joe Geller alleged that “Violence, fear and physical intimidation affected the outcome of a lawful elections process. I think that’s pretty bad.”
Since then, every close election in the country causes elections officials to sweat.
When Trump began talking about “stolen elections”, he was not being original; he was playing to a familiar theme. With his personality, it has been suggested that he is incapable of believing that anyone would vote against him. I am of the opinion, however, that he knew full well that he had lost all of those elections, and that he was looking for an excuse he could pass on to rally his supporters.
The sincerity of Trump’s claim is vital today. Proof of criminal intent is needed to nail him for two separate indictments. While the state and federal cases are different in scope, they both alleged election fraud and require that prosecutors prove "mens rea" or criminal intent on the part of Trump.
To prove criminal intent, prosecutors can use two types of evidence: direct and circumstantial.
Direct evidence shows a defendant's state of mind or actions, while circumstantial evidence can imply a guilty mind.
In Trump's case, direct evidence could include testimony about his private admission that he had lost the election. White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified before Congress that she was told by her boss, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, that "a lot of times (Trump will) tell me that he lost, but he wants to keep fighting it."
Trump however could claim he was swayed by other advisers who insisted the election was stolen – and there were many such toadies.
Bill Barr, however, says Trump knew full well he had lost. Tellingly, Trump cancelled a press conference in 2023 where he claimed he was going to unveil evidence of fraud.
After Trump’s conviction in New York, the remaining state case is underway in Georgia, and is on hold while consideration is given to Trump’s motion to disqualify Fani Willis. She is alleged to have had a romantic affair with Nathan Wade, the special prosecutor she appointed to lead the prosecution, and that created a conflict-of-interest.
The upshot is that the case will be delayed until after the November election.
There are two remaining federal charges: one in Florida regarding purloined documents and one in the District of Columbia regarding the attack on the Capitol.
The indictments add up to 88 felony charges.
While the mainstream media are chirpily reporting that Trump’s people are still behind him, and that he is even with Biden in the polls, there are reasons to think that Trump’s ‘stop the steal’ theme has gotten tired.
It can no longer push back adequately against the “felon” disillusionment that is hitting some Republican voters.
As recently as a few weeks ago, more than half of Americans think that he is unfit to be President.
Perhaps some of that has to do with the incredible shrinking crowds who attend his events. They are becoming embarrassing. A recent Trump visit to a Black Church was a fiasco, with few Blacks in attendance:
Even before the felony conviction, when he was running in the primaries against Nikki Haley, a full 20% of the Republican vote defected to Haley.
The question becomes: are they disillusioned and frustrated enough to vote for a Democrat?
I am guessing not…I would put my money on the simple act of not voting at all.
That is not like betrayal, that is more like disappointment.
How is all this likely to play out in November?
First, we can consider the Independent vote. In theory, more than half of Americans call themselves “Independent” - but they still vote for one particular party. This is called “Leaning” Independents.
From the above polling numbers, we know that only 40% of the Republican-Leaning Independents plan on voting for Trump, and 60% will abstain or defect. Based on the defections during the campaign against Haley, we can perhaps assume that of the Republicans themselves, only 80% will vote for Trump…20% will either not vote (my guess) or will vote for Biden.
In any event, it means that 60% of Trump’s voters will be missing or will vote against him.
The November election will be a massacre.
When Trump gets crushed, you can imagine the squeals of ‘voter fraud’ that will arise!
In fact, he is already setting the groundwork, with accusations of fraud in media today.
The difference between this time and 2000, is that so many fewer people believe him, that his protests will go nowhere.
They certainly will not keep him out of jail.
And there will be no large crowds rioting in the streets – Trump can’t conjure up the numbers anymore. His events are barren; his claims are ludicrous. They may play to the MAGA cult, but not enough to tempt them to come out to hear him. Let alone to riot for him. We have all seen what happens to Trump rioters.
How will that Presidential vote translate into Congressional and House voting? Probably in an equal defection, with a loss of at least half of the Republican vote.
Come November, President Biden will likely have a majority in the House and Senate.
Time for even more progressive legislation!
This is an outcome that Joe has certainly earned, but with the perversity of electoral results, it is a victory that owes just as much to Trump’s single-track “stolen election” nonsense.
If he had bothered to think of any policies or attractive ideas, he would certainly have done better.
Fortunately, he’s an idiot.
And has driven away a sufficient number of cult idiots to ensure his own defeat. Comments from him that there will be World War 3 if he is not elected are not helping him.
Now the only thing to wonder about, is which prison they will put him in… and whether Hillary will visit.
To everyone, thank you for reading Barry’s Substack.
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