Will The Aid Arrive In Time?
Russians are advancing but new weapons are coming and Russians are deserting
This article is to provide context for the Monday review of the best-seller “Our Enemies Will Vanish: The definitive eyewitness account of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – and why it will fail.”
“We are standing at the gates of hell,” wrote Ukrainian journalist Illia Ponomarenko.
He was writing in 2022 just as the Russian hammer fell…a time when no one thought Ukraine could last for years.
Writing a week before the Russian attack, he also saw what few others would believe: that Ukraine could win. “Russia,” he continued, “is facing a nightmare as well. Millions of things can go wrong, turning another one of the Kremlin’s “splendid little wars” into a nationwide catastrophe for Russia.”
He correctly foresaw crushing economic sanctions against Russia, political isolation and economic collapse.
Two years later, the nightmare is still with us. In a bid to seize territory before new US aid arrives, Russian forces have pushed out from the town of Avdiivka which they seized two months ago and entered the town of Ocheretyne, some 15 kilometers north of Avdiivka’s city center.
Some 50 km north of Avdiivka is Chasiv Yar, a strategically located settlement west of Bakhmut where Moscow has mounted a furious offensive. They are trying to outflank Chasiv Yar through the villages of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske to surround the town. They have not had any successes over the past seven days, despite pouring 25,000 soldiers into the battle.
Ukrainian troops have retreated west from the villages of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka. Despite these Ukrainian retreats, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that without additional Russian troop to combat Ukraine's anticipated rotations, Russia’s ability to make additional rapid tactical advances in the area would likely be constrained.
In fact, the Russians – despite further attacks – have not managed to make any further progress. The Ukrainians have stopped their momentum and are holding them in position.
"The arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional materiel will force the Russian command to either accept that a near-term wider or deeper penetration is unlikely, or commit additional reserves to the area to continue pursuing tactical gains," the ISW noted. The withdrawals have yet to result in rapid Russian tactical gains, and without additional Russian troop to combat Ukraine's rotation of new troops, Russia’s ability to make additional rapid tactical advances will be constrained.
While Russia has succeeded with marginal advances in forcing the Ukrainians to retreat, Russia "has failed to achieve an operational advantage," stated Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Their operational objective is to gain access to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal. Dynamic work to repel enemy attacks continues. “In some cases, the Defense Forces are making improvements along the front line. In particular, this week they managed to drive the enemy out of two positions and fully seize one of the forest strips. Currently, all positions from which we managed to drive the occupier out remain ours," emphasized Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles battalion of the 92nd separate mechanized brigade.
Acknowledging that the delay had caused harm to Ukraine’s defences, the US has now started sending the first $1-billion in aid. The total aid package will send another $60-billion to the beleaguered country.
French President Macron has been advocating for Europe to control its own military destiny by proposing to extend the French nuclear umbrella to the continent. This is causing some concern in the French parliament.
But Macron does not care about their concern…he has a mission, and he refuses to back down from his declaration in February that Europe should not rule out putting troops in Ukraine. He insists any hesitancy on Europe’s part will only encourage Russia to press on: “We have undoubtedly been too hesitant by defining the limits of our action to someone who no longer has any and who is the aggressor.”
Further, he sees that Europe cannot rely any longer on American leadership; America has China and other concerns to worry about in addition to Europe: “My responsibility is never to put [America] in a strategic dilemma that would mean choosing between Europeans and [its] own interests in the face of China.”
According to Foreign Affairs:
“Despite the discomfort Macron’s recent comments have produced, France’s steadfast support for Ukraine may prove to be a game-changer. Macron is among the most experienced European leaders and one of the few who offer a geopolitical vision for Europe. French support for EU enlargement will accelerate the institutional and policy reforms needed to bring new members into the union. Ahead of the European parliamentary elections, the European Council on Foreign Relations poll showed that a plurality of French voters remain supportive of Ukraine’s fight to regain all its territory.”
Macron has always had a vision of a Europe that was a stand-alone presence in world affairs, with a weight equal to the US. Realizing that bringing Ukraine into the EU would be a massive task, Macron is tolerant of a “gradual integration”, which would spare European sectors like agriculture the shock of a massive Ukrainian presence that would disrupt agricultural payment policies. But leaving Ukraine out of the EU has a cost as well; when the war is over, it will have the largest and best-trained armed on the continent.
With these benefits, several European countries in close proximity to Russia, including Poland and Lithuania, have sided with Macron’s plan.
Others are gearing up.
Germany is increasing its tank production to 20 tanks per month. It is also sending more aid immediately: a Skynex battery, 10 Marder IFV, 3000 Anti-Tank Weapons, and surveillance radar. It has also pledged a new Patriot System.
The UK is sending $620-million more to Ukraine. Czech-led initiatives raised $340-million for Ukraine, not counting drones.
The Italian government is readying its new defense aid package for Ukraine that will include, among others, a SAMP/T air defense system.
To put a bow on this ribbon, Germany, France, Latvia and Poland are now in favor of European army – one that would be strong enough to project continental strength to the rest of the world.
The Russian economy is straining under the war. There is now no reserve of unemployed people, while the army continues to try to draw in 30,000 men a month. After a refinery was hit by Ukrainian drones, Russia’s oligarchs were told to protect their own energy assets. In a word, Russia no longer has a national army capable of united defence: you are on your own feudal lords! This parallels Putin’s method of semi-governance, where gangs rule with his blessing. This can go very wrong if a gang does not play by the rules, like Wagner Group.
Straining under the pressure, Russian troops are deserting in numbers never seen before.
More than 18,000 Russian soldiers in Russia’s Southern Military District have abandoned their posts. Some 12,000 of them belong to the 8th Combined Arms Army, with 10,000 conscripts and 2,000 contract soldiers deserting. British intelligence previously stated that the high level of desertion demonstrates the poor morale of the Russian army and its reluctance to fight. This is due to the lack of training and motivation faced by Russian troops along the entire front line. Russia is targeting the acquisition of 300,000 more conscripts, to make up for manpower leakage. Ukraine has also increased its numbers.
The Southern Military District could come under sudden and severe new pressure if Ukraine’s persistent attacks on the Crimea Bridge succeed. Supplies to feed and stock up the Southern District flow mainly over that bridge.
Last night explosions rocked Crimea and traffic was suspended on the bridge after a Ukrainian missile attack. Ukraine has hit the bridge before, but thus far it has been repairable. Ukraine has also destroyed several units of military equipment in an attack on a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi in the north of Crimea, and a missile attack on a command post in Crimea where top Russian officers were deployed.
If you take away their food and ammunition, and kill their leaders, I am thinking that many more will defect.
Defection is a two-time loss for the Russians. There is the direct loss of a soldier, of course, but also the loss of all the time and resources spent training and equipping him. That all has to be done again, for his replacement. And each person who defects is another weakness in the structure of the army; this is an accelerating process.
In an act of incidental mercy Ukraine has sunk the oldest ship still (formerly) in Russian service: the Kommuna. Fittingly, it was a salvage ship. The strike however underscores another Russian weakness: once the Crimea bridge goes down, there will be no re-supply by ship for the Russian forces, They have had to withdraw nearly all their major ships from ports in occupied Crimea following successful Ukrainian strikes.
Here is where the thought of “Will Aid Arrive In Time?” gets flipped on its head.
I am convinced that the loss of Crimea will end the war for Putin. And though it looks strong, the Russian occupation of Crimea is hanging by a thread.
John E. Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, and Daniel Fried, National Security Council advisor to Presidents Clinton and Bush, published this appraisal a year ago:
“In any case, the West should not buy the argument that Putin will never give up, and that therefore Ukraine must settle the war on Putin’s terms. Indeed, Russia has had to accept losing wars in the past. The Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, World War I, and its invasion of Afghanistan are but four standout examples. The war in Ukraine will be no different. A military defeat in a war of choice is not easy for any country to swallow. But it is also not existential…[the path to victory] passes through Crimea.”
Ukraine does not even have to surround the northern flank of Crimea in order to cut supplies; a long-distance artillery barrage will be sufficient to effectively cut it off. If the bridge is also gone, the Russian troops are no longer a strength, they are hostages needing to be fed.
As Herbst and Freid note: “Such a setback would have political ramifications in Moscow, and the fissures that we currently see in the Putin regime would grow.”
We can recall how flimsy Putin’s grip on power is, and how poor his judgement. He was the one who promoted Wagner Group leader Prighozin, who turned on him and came within 100 km of Moscow. When he did that, Putin ran away north to his mansion 30 km from the Finnish border. We will never know why Prighozin turned away, but history came within a thread of a new direction; Prighozin would not have carried on the war; he appreciated what Ukrainian troops could do.
So despite the current pressures on the Ukrainian lines, the ultimate game-losing piece is Crimea, and Putin could lose that any day the long-range missiles arrive in Ukraine.
It is not necessary that Ukraine become part of NATO to win this war. It is already effectively gaining almost as much support from the West as membership in NATO could provide. The only additional piece about belonging to NATO, is insurance against attack. As long as Russia continues a ‘hot war’, then NATO membership is out of the question – an unneeded for victory.
Already, the steps are being enacted to make Ukraine a functioning part of Europe.
For example – and I will cover this in more detail soon - a major and unnoticed development is that Ukraine’s electric power system has now been disconnected from Russia and plugged into the European grid. And the Europeans have increased Ukraine’s supply by 30%.
Ukraine will never go back to an association with Russia. It belongs in Europe and is taking active, effective steps to demonstrate this.
A demonstration of Ukraine’s strength is in its economy: its exports have now reached their pre-war levels. Ukraine exported more than 13 million tons of products totaling $3.3 billion in April, which is higher than volumes for February 2022 before the start of the full-scale invasion. Ukraine created an alternative sea corridor that hugged the coastline, away from Russian ships and aircraft.
Another shipping measure illustrates Ukraine’s unity with Europe: The Unity ship insurance program was created jointly with the British government and a pool of insurance companies. It has helped facilitate exports of agricultural products, metals, and non-military goods.
Russia’s exports, by contrast, are taking a pounding – literally. Ukrainia drone strikes against the two oblasts earlier on May 1 hit the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Voronezh Oblast refinery. Other attacks against oil depots in Russia's Smolensk Oblast last week destroyed 26,000 cubic meters of fuel,
This is rebounding within Russia: the cost of diesel went up almost 10% in the past week, while gasoline's prices hit a six-month high, going up more than 20% when compared to the start of the last year.
And in all the rage of war, Ukraine’s press freedom index has been climbing – it has been getting more open as the war goes on.
It takes special character to do that - character that the Russians lack. The downside of a dictatorship is that all the people are under your control…so you only hear what they think you want to hear. You will never hear the truth: the invasion is a terrible idea that will make Ukraine stronger and more determined than ever to remain free.
And those people under your control: they are just another potential enemy, to watch over and guard against.
In case, say, they get impatient with a war that is going nowhere…
To everyone, thank you for reading Barry’s Substack - a community of commentators on the meaning behind the headlines.
Please support our work by subscribing; your comments and thoughts could be included in future articles.
Also this one was hit last night. One more for your list. -- This refinery "Pershiy Zavod" is the largest petrochemical enterprise of the Kaluga region.
Great read Barry. Nice to see you on Substack. I paid up. I'm fascinated by Macron's strategy but with the Germans so weak it does make sense post-Brexit. Any idea what the US policy is for this new French mission? I ask that only half in jest.