Zelensky The Environmentalist: Europe Fast-Tracks Renewable Energy
Ukraine plugs into European network
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a severe global energy crisis – “a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity” according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Prices for energy shot up, which held back economic growth, strained the finances of families and commerce, and complicated efforts to deliver electricity.
Energy became a direct weapon of war, with Russia destroying Ukraine’s electrical generating capacity and Ukraine targeting Russian oil depots.
Russia also tried to use fossil fuels as a weapon to blackmail Europe into cooperation with its goal of absorbing Ukraine. After it invaded in February 2022, Russia cut 80 billion cubic metres of gas to Europe, which sent the continent into energy shock.
There were two connected responses: first, Western nations worked frantically to switch from a dependency on fossil fuels, which are geo-captive resources, and second, they used clean technologies like electric vehicles and heat pumps to substitute for fossil fuels.
Europe is now passing environmental milestones at breakneck speed. Carbon emissions in Europe are dropping like falling coal.
This is happening because of one man - Putin. But the resistance to Putin - the reason this is a war instead of a surrender - is largely due to Putin’s nemesis, Zelensky. It is because Zelensky was able to rouse a country to resist that we have a situation today where the EU is moving away from Russian oil to renewable energy.
When Russia invaded, leaders in the Western world were immediately resigned to its victory. They urged Zelensky to escape and abandon Ukraine. Everyone knew that Russia was a massive invincible power that could not be beaten.
Zelensky alone saw Russia’s error: it could never conquer Ukraine with the paucity of troops it was committing to the war. He also knew that Ukraine has spent a decade re-building its army on the NATO model of devolved command: lower units had freedom to complete a mission as they saw fit.
Only an idiot would invade Ukraine in those circumstances. Enter Putin.
He had previously conquered Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea without any significant Western protest. The fact that Ukraine was many times larger and was plugged into Western resources did not seem to have entered into his consciousness. He was too busy created his fantasy-world of Ukrainian national denial.
His intended three-day coup turned into a lengthy war, and energy became an ace card.
Which gave Zelensky an opportunity to emerge as “Unintentional Environmentalist Of The Year”.
Europe’s response to the energy crisis was so firm that it can be held up as one of its proudest moments. It has become the geopolitical block that is doing the most for the renewable environment movement.
Of course, they are not doing it because they suddenly got Virtue, but because Russia’s oil prices started to rise as Putin began to wield it as a stick to beat Europe for its support of Ukraine.
Like so many things that went sideways for Putin, Europe stuck a finger in the air and angrily moved away from oil.
So in a sense, we owe Europe’s rush-to-renewables to Putin.
More precisely, we owe it to Ukraine and Zelensky, for surviving so long under Putin’s continuing and illegal violence.
Just to be clear: war did not drive the invention of the clean energy solutions. It just provided the gateway that allowed only one solution through: clean energy. War does not so much drive innovation as it spurs adoption.
The EU pledged to slash Russian energy use, and has now reduced its reliance on Russian gas to 9 percent, down from 40 percent before the war.
By the end of the decade Russia will deliver just 13 percent of the world's energy, compared with 20 percent at the start of Putin’s war. It will also receive $4.2-billion less revenue, as it has had to make deals with China and India that have been less than stellar. It is now costing Russia $180-million/day. And if the war ended tomorrow, that money would never rebound. Countries that now use renewables will not go back to reliance on Russia.
Newly installed solar PV and wind capacity is estimated to have saved EU electricity consumers more than $100 billion during 2021-2023 by displacing more expensive fossil fuel generation. Wholesale electricity prices in Europe would have been 8% higher without the additional renewable capacity, according to an IEA report.
Russia relies on fossil fuels for 66% of its exports and 45% of its federal budget.
But the pull-back from Russian fossil fuel energy has not left Europe freezing in the dark.
Renewables will now overtake coal to become the largest source of electrical production by 2025.
Faith Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that “The world will add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the previous 20 years.
“This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system.”
Emissions in Europe have fallen by more than 15% in 2023, largely due to electricity generation from windmills and solar-covered roofs and fields. Windmills added 17 gigawatts (GW) and solar added 56 GW. Nuclear generated another 100 GW. As the solar boom continues, power generation will become emissions-free much faster than previously thought. At the same time, cheaper low-speed electric vehicles (LSVs) that do not require expensive charging stations are entering the market, lowering costs for drivers wishing to go green.
Europe should be at net zero in 25 years. Net zero is when any carbon emissions are removed naturally by the environment. Not a bad shift change for an industrialization process that has had 300 years of fossil fuel use.
Several European countries hit some of their sustainable energy targets for 2030 a decade early, says a report called Plos One. Sweden was closest to the target, followed by Denmark, Estonia and Austria. Malta improved the most, with big gains also found in Cyprus, Latvia and Belgium.
Nearly two-thirds of Sweden’s gross final energy consumption was derived from renewable sources. Sweden relied primarily on hydro, wind, solid and liquid biofuels, as well as heat pumps. In Sweden, electricity retailers are mandated to buy a proportion of green electricity as part of their supply mix. Sweden has also launched innovative programs to use the body heat from its commuters to Stockholm Central Station to heat building space.
Few gas heating systems are built anymore in Germany.
Gasoline sales in Norway have collapsed 90% since almost all new cars are electric.
The Netherlands and Greece generated more power from solar than coal for the first time.
The European Commission aims to mobilize more than $1 trillion in sustainable investments over the next decade.
The International Energy Agency’s annual world energy outlook suggests global clean energy investment could rise to more than $2trn a year by 2030, up 50% from today.
While some may say that Europe is only one smallish part of the world, and we should not pay that much attention to it as an environmental success story because of all the other poorer countries, in fact rich countries lead by example, because they can. Europe’s solutions today are the affordable technologies that will be used tomorrow in Nigeria, Guatemala, Ecuador…name your continent.
The world’s total renewable electricity capacity rose to 4 500 gigawatts (GW), equal to the total power output of China and the United States combined. This is an added 50% more renewable capacity, and the next five years will see the fastest growth yet.
New policies are also driving significant renewable energy increases in the United States and India over the next two years. China, meanwhile, is consolidating its leading position and is set to account for almost 55% of global additions of renewable power capacity in 2024.
Already there are signs that CO2 emissions might be decreasing for the first time ever this year in China. China has increased green energy use above IEA projections for years. China is investing a lot in coal plants, but it also invests more than the rest of the world combined in renewable energy. In 2023 China has built more than half of all new renewable Energy in the world per kWh.
Solar PV additions will account for two-thirds of this year’s increase in renewable power capacity.
India is, sadly, going the other way, celebrating the rise in their coal production. The country is in an ideal ‘solar zone’ though, and that may turn around dramatically if the EU continues with its break-through applications and approaches.
The shock of the rise in energy prices has also had a social impact. Faced with monumental energy shortfalls, governments committed well over $500 billion, mainly in advanced economies, to shield consumers from the immediate impacts. In addition to fast-tracking the emergence of a clean energy economy, they created social shields to protect their populations from the worst impacts.
In fact, they went the extra mile to protect non-citizens as well. In addition to the pain and suffering Russia caused to those inside Ukraine, there were millions of Ukrainians seeking refuge in neighboring nations. Aid was immediately provided for these refugees.
Vulnerable populations needed state help to defray higher energy costs, and the first funds were made available almost immediately.
The energy emergency also drew Ukraine and Europe closer together, with the goal of helping millions of people keep the lights on and stay warm. Ukraine’s disconnection from Russia’s power system and synchronization with Continental Europe was made permanent in November 2023.
The Continental European Transmission System Operators (TSOs) plugged Ukraine into Europe’s electrical system.
They then increased the capacity limit for electricity trade to Ukraine and Moldova to 1,700 megawatts - an increase of 500 MW (30%) from the previous limit.
This enhances regional security and promotes a more integrated and efficient energy market.
In its own way – unnoticed in the headlines – the energy operators of Europe have quietly made Ukraine a member of the EU.
In a practical sense, Putin’s war is over and he lost.
It happened with all the drama of flipping on a light switch.
Renewable energy from Europe is flowing into the power grid of Ukraine.
It is an environmental boost of a double nature: the direct reduction in fossil fuel use, and the sinking of one of the world’s biggest polluters: the war-maker Putin.
The Russian propagandists have not even commented on the European energy flow. It would not be in their interest to showcase another failure of the Master Planner and his three-day special military operation.
But renewable green energy is now flowing into the newest part of Europe: Ukraine.
It is a very fitting tribute to Zelensky, the Unwitting Environmentalist.
A Note on UPCOMING ARTICLES: Each week opens with a news-driving topic. Next week will be the PALESTINE PROTESTS: their depth, meaning and impact on Biden in the November election.
Previous features included ROUGH SLEEPERS from Pulitzer Prize–winning author Tracy Kidder; “Zelensky - man who inspires Ukrainian resistance”; and “LIMITARIANISM” – a convincing and radical proposal for wealth redistribution.
Paid subscribers will get the full article; others will get a Preview.
All subscribers will receive a full version of the other weekly articles.
To everyone, thank you for reading Barry’s Substack.
We are a community of commentators on the meaning behind the headlines.
Please join us by subscribing; your comments and thoughts could be included in future articles.