Is Trump’s “Golden Dome” A Counterfeit Comforter?

Trump raises join-up fee for Canada…now a bargain at $71-billion

Protective missile domes are all the rage in the news, since the Israel-Iran exchange recently when hundreds died from missiles that were not supposed to hit.

Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defence scheme is modelled after Israel’s Iron Dome – but it’s Trump, so of course, gold.

It sounds just about perfect…until you look at a map:

To defend Alaska (no one is saying anything about Hawaii) Trump needs access to Canada.

Though the Dome is supposed to be heavily space-based, nothing works faster than missiles on the ground.

Trump has jacked up the price for Canadian participation in his “Golden Dome” defence system.

What was a bargain yesterday at $61-billion, is now on the table for $71-billion.

You snooze, you lose!

Or perhaps Trump just forgot what he was asking; after all, a few days had passed and because of his age, Trump's cognitive incapacity continues to increase at a high degree every day.

Trump is doing his “art of the deal” play here, and offering to “let” Canada participate if it either pays or becomes part of the US.

In fact, he cannot build his Golden Dome without Canada, because he needs to rely on Canadian data to track Russian and Chinese missiles.

Two-thirds of Canadians are not in favor of joining his plan.

PM Carney is humoring him, saying Canada will “consider” the offer. But not the part where it joins the US…join is out.

In the meantime, Canada cancelled its contracts for American jet fighters.

In Canada, the word “boondoggle” gets used a lot with the Dome.

In reality, the Dome’s proposed kinetic interceptors - missiles that have to actually hit the incoming rocket in order to destroy them, as opposed to exploding at a distance - have barely managed a 50% success rate in heavily scripted tests that apparently do not reflect realistic conditions (amongst others that counter measures will be employed by the adversary).

And Canada is already modernizing its NORAD contribution to continental defence.

Canada has called up four reasons for not participating:

- Ballistic missile defence has never worked and there is no indication that it ever will;

- It is likely to add to instability by prompting a surprise first strike;

- It would require thousands of orbiting platforms, weaving in and out of thousands of commercial satellites and open to wireless hijacking; and

- Canada cannot afford to divert billions of dollars to feather the nests of US defence contractors.

There is one other niggling little detail.

In the past few days Iranian missiles overwhelmed Israel’s fabled Iron Dome and destroyed several buildings, killing several people. Iran makes good missiles. Israel counted 24 dead, 1,290 wounded, and over 10,000 evacuated. Last Fall, home-made missiles from Houthi territory did the same thing, kicking up the ground near an Israeli airport.

The damage was not as great as the shock of revelation: the Iron Dome was supposed to be invulnerable. It consists of several types of anti-aircraft rockets, for medium-range and short-range interception. The Israelis had built up its reputation over the years, conscious that a shield that was supposed to be invulnerable was in fact invincible – if no one had the nerve to test it.

In fact, the Iron Dome was more myth than magic.

To Netanyahu’s surprise, the Iranians were not unarmed civilians hiding in rubble. Towards the end of the exchanges of fire, in fact, the Iranians were winning the final exchange when the Cease Fire went into effect. The Houthis who also launched missiles were not technological leaders. They were in fact the offshoots of a youth movement in the back hills of Yemen. They are protected from their neighbors the Saudis by the Rub Al Khali - the “empty quarter” - a desert so severe that if the Saudis called it “empty”, you can bet it was totally devoid of life.

I’ve stood at the edge of the Rub Al Khali, looking over a million acres of absolutely nothing, and felt a chill down my spine even in the desert heat.

In sympathy with the Palestinians and with the support of their ally Iran, the Houthis began firing missiles to punish Israel for its ongoing war in Gaza. After a string of announcements about how the IDF was intercepting missile after missile, the Israelis were forced to concede a few days ago that some were getting past the defences of the Iron Dome.

Then they went all out with an attack on Iran, and now missiles are slicing through on a regular basis.

Both Israel's long-range Arrow Iron Dome air defence system and a US-made Terminal High-Altitude Thaad battery failed to intercept them.

The drones used by the Houthis in the strike were locally manufactured, and identified as “Yaffa” drones. They are not going to be a war-changer. But they are good enough to poke holes in Israel’s boasted “Iron Dome” reputation.

Houthi-made Yaffa drone with rocket booster

If a home-made missile can achieve these results against a tested and high-tech Iron Dome, how much better will Trump’s version be?

Trump has not answered that question, and is pressing forward with a “Golden” (vs. Iron) Dome (it’s Trump – of course it’s golden).

Intended to protect the U.S. from ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles, the Golden Dome, says Trump, will be in place before his term is over. It will consist of 1,000 satellites circling the Earth to sense missiles and track them. A separate group of 200 satellites will bring down the enemy missiles with counter-missiles and/or lasers.

According to nuclear arms expert Matthew Bunn of the Harvard Kennedy School, a Golden Dome is likely to provoke even larger arms buildups, derail already-dim prospects for any negotiated nuclear arms restraint, and perhaps even increase the chances of nuclear war. When President George Bush pulled America out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty – which had capped a nuclear arms race – he triggered a bitter response from Russia, China and North Korea.

Says Bunn: “Now, Trump wants to go much further, with a defense “forever ending the missile threat to the American homeland,” with a success rate “very close to 100%.” I believe that this effort is highly likely to lead to still larger nuclear buildups in Russia and China.”

Trump’s plan is a golden egg that will hatch deadly offspring.

Elon Musk was involved in the deal, before and he and Trump had a hissy-fit. Now, no one knows.

Anyway, is it likely to work?

The Golden Dome is the latest in a string of interceptor plans developed since 1962, where the government has spent more than $531 billion on “multiple ineffective missile defense schemes,” according to Stephen Schwartz, a nuclear budget analyst. Reagan alone spent over $450-billion on a failed attempt to build a shield that would provide a roof over America. All we have to show for the effort is 44 ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California. The resulting system is so flawed the Lockheed Martin was just awarded an $18 billion contract to build a brand-new replacement system.

Trump says that Reagan didn’t have the right technology, but now we have “super technology” that will provide “close to 100 percent protection”.

Pause there for a second.

All the nuclear nations possess more than 12,000 nuclear weapons.

Having a system that provides “close to” 100% protection is a horror-show of a boast.

Let’s say 1% of the missiles from Russia alone get through. Russia has about 1,710 missiles with more than 5,000 warheads. One percent of those totals equals 17 missiles getting through the dome with about 50 warheads. Erase 50 American cities.

80% of Americans live in cities. 265-million people. Gone.

And the rest of America would be a radioactive fall-out nightmare. People would be scrounging for radioactive tadpoles for dinner. The Golden Dome would be a cloche relic covering a hot America.

And you can bet that future enemy missiles will be equipped with anti-Dome measures like multiple warheads per missile, decoy warheads and warheads that can maneuver; they will make the space-based Golden Dome almost guaranteed to fail.

Even better, said Trump, the whole thing will only cost $175 billion.

The New Republic publication scoffs at this claim: “This is all nonsense, of course. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a Golden Dome system would cost as much as $831 billion over two decades. Scientists warn that even if all the complex technology and computer software works flawlessly, an adversary could defeat the defenses by simply launching a salvo of missiles that would overwhelm the system and deploying basic countermeasures that could spoof the sensors.”

The only thing the Dome will make Golden are the contractors who will work on a project that will (hopefully) never be tested or if it is and it fails, no one will be around to say “Give me my money back”.

It’s sort of like religion: you pay into a system all your life and if there is no heaven at the end, you won’t be in much of a position to complain to anyone.

The Golden Dome religion is perfect for Trump.

His supporters will recycle an old idea, polish it with an exaggerated shine of promises like instant success, and secure big, multiyear contracts. They will then get even more contracts for replacement systems.

Think that’s improbable?

Review the F35 for a second.

This was supposed to be a game-changer for air forces worldwide. But despite its exceptionally long development period of 23 years, coupled with the enormous cost of approximately $300 billion for its development and production, the F-35 fighter itself is not an extraordinary combat vehicle.

This is not my view; it is the opinion of many internal experts, including Dan Fraser of Responsible Statecraft. In order to satisfy the material coating limits for the aircraft, for example, the military has to impose a time limit on high-speed flight. For considerably less money and fanfare, the F-22 was developed; it is faster than the F-35 and at $143-million per unit, somewhat cheaper than the lifetime cost of the F-35: $1.7-trillion each.

$1.7-trillion.

Per plane.

That money could have been spent on alternative ideas that would cost a lot less.

Like systems designed to feed all the world’s hungry people.

Re-allocating military money can lead to surprising results: for the cost of Trump’s birthday parade, all the homeless veterans in the US could be given shelter. During his first term, Trump proposed holding a similar large-scale military parade to showcase troops, fighter jets, armored vehicles and other military hardware. However, the parade was ultimately canceled in 2018 after costs soared as high as $92 million.

That’s not even counting the cost of street repair.

Feeding the world’s hungry people would be a heck of a lot more powerful than an F-35.

Or a Golden Dome.

Paying for things like climate change studies and other research grants, or any number of federal programs could benefit a large number of Americans.

According to the Southern Poverty Law Centre, here are five things the parade money could be better spent on:

· Buying more than 14 million lunches for high school students.

· Funding Medicaid coverage for almost 6,000 eligible people for a year.

· Providing more than 4,500 households with subsidized housing assistance for a year.

· Covering a year of disability compensation for more than 7,200 military veterans.

· Helping to feed nearly 17,700 people for a year through the SNAP fund.

I’ll add another one: giving every Substack reader (20 million people) a $2.00 coupon towards public transportation to a Trump protest event near them.

If the Golden Dome lives up to its name and costs more than $800-billion, the case for cancelling it and handing out the money to Substack subscribers gets even more appealing (albeit to a limited public)!

But as events in Ukraine show, an attack using expensive missiles is unlikely to be the mode for future nuclear war.

Trucks driving down rural roads are much more likely to be the lethal nuke carriers, popping drones out of their backs, scattering holocaust with cheap abandon.

Cheerleaders for Israel’s Iron Dome say that casualties would have been a lot higher without it.

They neglect to add that casualties would have been zero if they had not attacked Iran. The only perfect dome is the one that’s never used.

A Golden Dome is planning for yesterday’s war.

Go back to the drawing board, kids, and come up with something that is ready for tomorrow.

Like a world at peace.

That would be the best plan.

Work on that one, please!

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Next week will be The Self Made Myth, why progressive taxes are critical to change the way wealth is created, who creates it, and the role of government.

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