It’s A Woman’s World

In 2020 women outnumbered male voters by to 10 million.

This gap promises to get bigger: in 2024, a record-breaking 89 million women have registered to vote.

Partly that’s because there simply ARE more women:  some seven million more eligible women voters than men.  And women tend to vote more often and more consistently than men.

They also vote in a massive plurality for the Democratic party, which in turn reflects their concerns. Some 57% of Democrats say that it is important to them that a woman be elected president in their lifetime, v.s. 14% among Republicans. 

This time around, we have Kamala Harris as the exemplar for that desire: a shining role model on the gender stage.

Under it all is the driving issue of a woman’s rights to control her own reproductive life.

As noted, all the polls point to a Harris victory; the only issue is whether she will bring a sufficient number of Congresspeople along with her to be able to pass the legislation she wants. 

The indications are that she will provide the needed lift to all the contests. I personally expect that Republicans will lose 14 of their current 19 Senate seats that are up for grabs in this election, and 43 seats in the House, giving a new House balance of 256 Democrats to 178 Republicans.

Enough to say  “Motion Passed!”  anytime Harris wants.

Again, it will be women who ensure this victory.

This is not an American phenomena alone; around the world, the status of women is strongly linked to all dimensions of democracy.  There can be no governance “by the people and for the people” if half of the people are not well represented:  empowering women and building resilient democracies go hand in hand.  Women have greater responsiveness to social needs. They also are better at promoting increased cooperate across party lines.

Of course, there are wingnuts, but I will resist the temptation to rant about Marjorie Taylor “space laser” Greene or Laura Loonie. There are random warps in space-time everywhere.  But generally, women are such good stalwarts of democracy that they are targeted for repression by every dictatorial ruler.

Like the Republicans of the Trump/Vance ilk. The biggest issue is abortion, of course, but they have retro views of any kind of gender equality.  Trump’s former Republican challenger Nikki Haley has said that both Trump and Vance need to change the way they speak about women. 

Vance, as a reminder, favors a “federal response” to prevent women from traveling to states where abortion is legal.  Meaning the federal army would stop them and turn them back home to their husbands or rapists. 

For Vance, this is definitely about the power threat posed by the ‘wrong kind’ of woman.  He has complained that childless women have too much power: “We are effectively run in this country, via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made.”  He accuses single women of lacking a stake in America’s future.  He votes against protection for in vitro fertilization and wants higher taxes for childless people.

This is a gender war.

For men, one of the best predictors of how a man will vote is whether they believe that men are being besieged in an anti-male culture.  It’s a Trump attitude to the core:  I’m the victim and I’m under attack.

Vance and Trump aim to not just limit women’s participation but to roll back the gains they have already made, to the level of ‘Handmaiden’s Tale’ subservient breeder status.  MAGA wants to dominate women.  Its Project 2025 Guidebook is a manifesto for a male-dominant household and society.

So kiss the women’s vote good-bye. Even Trump’s wife Melania is in favor of women’s choice. Good luck Donald.

This is a huge mistake not only from and electoral point of view, but because the Congress is becoming steadily more balanced towards women:

It is incredible to me that any thinking political party would ignore women and put forward a limiting self-defeating agenda.  Of course, the trigger phrase here is “thinking” political party.

Trump has known this for years.  He started back-peddling on abortion a year ago – yet he could not resist bragging about how he was responsible for Roe.  The media have been silent about this.

As Substack writer Sankar Narayan has noted, the media avoids discussing women’s support for Harris or forecasting their turnout for this election.  He wonders: “That single number is the most crucial factor in U.S. elections. Perhaps the fear is that highlighting it could motivate women to vote, potentially causing an outcome the media doesn’t prefer.”

I have found this as well, especially regarding the abortion issue.  The mainstream media downplay its importance, pushing economic topics ahead. 

It is important to realize this central flaw in today’s polling.  Media polls on issues fail to ask questions that could predict what will move voters to back one candidate over another. The polls find that the economy is top of mind among the people interviewed—usually based on how they rank a list of issues—but not whether it will influence their votes. And there are many reasons to think it will not.

As Ms. Magazine says:  “In contrast to the economy, abortion evokes visceral reactions. Either you believe that women should be able to make decisions about their bodies, or you don’t.”

“Harris’ best chance for winning is if abortion rights are central to voters when they make their choice between her and Trump,” says Democratic pollster Jim Gerstein.

Asked which leader is “best able to handle” abortion, 51 percent of respondents said Harris and 33 percent said Trump.  I find that 33% number hard to believe, personally.

But half of all voters are eagerly casting their ballots because of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v.s. Wade.  A pro-choice society is the kind of world voters want their children to live in.

It’s the kind of world Trump is walking into, and he knows it.  The public is more pro-choice today then it was when his Supreme Court lackies overturned Roe.  Today some 85% of people would agree with legal abortions in all or some cases.  The opposition – Trump’s previous Evangelical crowd – have fallen away to 12%, the lowest it has ever been.

Part of the reason is that people can see that a ban on abortions causes dangerous health issues, personal trauma and reverse outcomes.  The number of abortions has increased since the 2022 Dobbs decision, with the highest number of abortions (over one million) and the highest rate of abortions in more than a decade.  The loss of access in states with bans has been counterbalanced by clinics, abortion funds and support organizations to help people access care.  But the bans are nevertheless hurting state health outcomes, as doctors leave areas with bans in order to practice in safe zones.  Those doctors are probably never going back.  A state ban on abortion is a state ban on doctors; this is a vaccination of death for a state.

Among the states that have banned abortions, the public push-back has been intense.  The state bans are invariably imposed by a Republican-controlled White Male caucus, which acts without reference to or in defiance of the wishes of the people. 

Public opposition to abortion has deflated.  Pro-life initiatives are being beaten even in every conservative state.  Where ballot initiatives have appeared in states, they have been overwhelmingly in favor of terminating the ban.

This is an election for women, and for the issue driving women:

The situation is similar to another popular revolt, in the 1920’s.  A coalition of moralists drove a freedom-loving people to give up a private right that had been taken for granted by millions of people since European settlers started to land.

It was Abolition – a prohibition on the sale and consumption of alcohol.

The Abolition drama:

·        Was driven by an apparently unbearable problem;

·        Created a drastic solution;

·        Railroaded the solution into law;

·        Refused to acknowledge a down-side; and

·        Had to be destroyed, and replaced with liveable alternatives.

But like the abortion ban, prohibition actually triggered an increase in the undesired outcome…consumption of alcohol:

It also drove people to take high-potency drugs instead, and pushed the death count from poisoned liquor up four times.

One of the pivotal forces in the repeal of abolition was pressure from women, who became convinced that the ban was hypocritical and dangerous.  It triggered a blatant disregard for the law, as people made work-around solutions to get their beverages.  There were eventually more women involved in the antiprohibition movement than there were supporting it.   Women funded that movement by themselves, and became much more powerful.

Applying the lessons of prohibition to abortions, we can confidently make this forecast:

-        Women will defy strict abortion laws to end pregnancies they knew they couldn’t continue.

-        Research from around the world has shown that banning abortion doesn’t stop it from happening — it just drives it underground.  Around the world, an estimated 8 to 11 percent of maternal deaths are caused by unsafe abortion.

-        When abortion is heavily restricted or banned, women from poor, rural and marginalized communities suffer most, as they may not be able to afford to travel to places where abortion is legal, or pay what it costs.  

-        Botched abortions by back-alley providers will lead to death and mutilation

States with the highest rates of pregnancy in teens 10-14 years old are also the states that depend the most on the Federal Government for finances  -  which will not be available to support law-enforcement bans on abortion.

A ban on abortion will cost the Handmaiden states more in law enforcement than leaving women free to make up their own minds.

Abortion Choice is like the Hammer of Thor; the issues of crime and inflation are Tinkerbells in comparison.

Abortion choice is a CAUSE, not an issue, because women are furious about being cheated by the Supreme Court.

They are furious about cases like that of Amber Nicole Turman, who suffered in pain in her Atlanta hospital because a simple procedure to clear an abortion was made illegal by a new Georgia law.  As the infection spread, she worried about her 6-year-old son.  By the time the doctors finally operated, it was too late for the 28-year-old medical student, and she passed away from a “preventable” condition.

Doctors had warned state legislators that women would die if such medical procedures became illegal.

Since abortion was banned or restricted in 22 states over the past two years, women in serious danger have had to wait until their conditions were ‘life threatening’ before obtaining help.

The choice for women is clear: Trump is a morally bad person who has suddenly flipped from being anti-abortion to being (evidently) pro-choice.  So how can you trust that?

I would also guess that his recent statement that he will be a “protecter” of women, and that women won’t be “thinking about abortion” after he is elected, are being trashed on social media.

How can Trump be a protector of women when some twenty women have accused Trump of inappropriate behaviour, and his comments caught on tape are truly repulsive. He denies everything, of course, but his sole loyalty lies in his appetite for conquest.

Substack writer Maria underlines the frustration that women have in dealing with Republicans:  “No matter how loud you scream the truth, the public blinded by lies will not hear it. I am once again discouraged by recent developments in FL where we easily got enough signatures for Amendment 4 on the ballot this November, then the STATE AGENCY, i.e. DeSantis' appointees, is plastering billboards and ads against it with outright lies, then a judge refuses to block the state agency's lies. 40 days before the election!. It's literally sickening for any normal human being, let alone for women in the state.”

She highlights the kind of male arrogance that I believe is likely to backfire badly on DeSantis et al in this election.  Women are angry and they are tired of being pushed aside. 

Diana Mutz, director of the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics at the University of Pennsylvania, said that after two years – during which time abortion was supposed to have died down as an emotional issue - the only thing that [still] seemed to matter was abortion.”

They are also attracted to the Harris camp by an agenda in which their needs are met.

When Kamala Harris is elected President, according to a comment on the Women For Kamala Harris website, there will be:

-        No more hateful talk about minorities, the LGBTQ community, women, healthcare providers, immigrants, teachers, election workers, judges, and everyone else on Trump's enemies list.

-        No more threats of revenge.

-        No more speaking of OUR country as a "failing nation."

-        No more blaming the poor for poverty.

-        No more hating everything except Donald J. Trump.

Attention will be paid to measures like the Obamacare regulation that Requires insurance companies to cover breast cancer treatment and to cap the costs.

And most Harris voters believe that the country is still not doing enough to help girls and young women become successful.

On election day, one of the groups most likely to show up in great numbers is “young women”.  Within 48 hours of Harris being selected as the Democratic candidate, nearly 40,000 of them registered to vote.

If most women coalesce around one candidate and/or around one issue, they will prevail.

And for women the question is not one about detail; about the number of weeks left in which an abortion can be done.

It’s a question of who gets to decide.

This time, women get to decide.

And men will find out how wrong their polls, assumptions and arrogance have been.

Because women form the majority of the electorate, this will be a change of historic and permanent force.

Harris is only the first.  She matters; she sets the stage.  But she is not the last.

I look forward so much to seeing classrooms of young students who assume that women have always had the advantage and they tell me to hobble back to the hospice because they are working on Mary’s campaign to be the next president after Lisa…

I’ve voted for that future.

Please help make it happen.