Pay, People ‘n Polls = Good News For Harris

Since Kamala Harris launched her bid for the presidency on July 21, almost five million people have donated to her campaign. 

Only 1.4 million have given to Donald Trump – about one-quarter of Kamala’s number.  It is a mini-mob compared to hoard.

That power has translated into a billion dollars in her campaign war chest – more donation dollars in three months than Trump has raised in two years. 

It’s not only the judgement of millions of people, but of people whom control millions of dollars.  More billionaires are giving to Harris than are shilling out to Trump.

It is visually a smack in the face for Trump:

She is a magnet.  Almost one in ten Republicans plan to vote for her.  The leakage is proportionately higher in the upper ranks of the Party, where people know Donald personally.  To know him is to be disgusted by him.

Trump’s caring nature was captured perfectly by Obama:

Poll-watcher FiveThirtyEight's tracker shows that Harris is currently 2.4 points ahead of Trump nationally, while pollster Nate Silver's tracker shows that she is 2.8 points ahead.  All polls show that Kamala Harris is winning the popular vote by a large margin.  The most pessimistic forecasts reveal that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris now have nearly identical chances of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1 percent and Trump at 49.7 percent.  Harris leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points nationally, 49 percent to 47.8 percent, according to the latest aggregate of polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ.

Former Democratic strategist James Carville – architect of President Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign, reiterates his position that Harris will win.

The highly accurate RaceToTheWH site projects a Harris victory by 2 points, 48.8% to 46.8%.  The trend has been steady for two months:

Further, in House forecasts, RaceToTheWh forecasts a Democratic majority:

The Senate forecast is at a virtual tie.

According to Jeff Tiedrich, voters who are just now making up their minds in the last month or week are going for Harris, 60% to 36%:  “The fence-sitters are doing the right thing.”

In a new poll from the highly credible Associated Press and National Opinion Research Center, Harris’s favourability rating is significantly higher than Trump’s, with more than half of registered voters viewing her as ‘favorable’ against just 40 percent who felt that way about Trump.

She leads by 20 percent on election integrity, by 12 percent on middle-class taxes, by 11 percent on natural disaster relief, by five percent on the national housing crisis, and by two percent on jobs and unemployment.

Trump is also losing a core group: uneducated White voters.  He still leads nationally with this group, but his margin has shrunk from 33 points in 2016 to 27 points today.  This matters most in the swing states.

And according to reason.com, another big part of Trump’s constituency is falling away: “About 102 million people of faith—including "32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church"—are likely to abstain from voting in November, according to a new study from Arizona Christian University (ACU).” 

Enthusiasm for this election among people of faith is lower than usual and much lower than in 2020.  The subject of abortion is only coming up in about half the churches, where normally evangelical congregants regularly sit through preaching against abortion—a topic that, notably, isn't mentioned in the Bible.

And best of all, Kamala leads Trump by 23% on reproductive rights. 

This is the single most important issue of the campaign.  Anyone who says otherwise is a male pollster who probably got the “red wave” poll wrong in 2022.

Trump has repeatedly promised over the last eight years to ban the medical procedure at every available opportunity.

He is trying to back-track on abortion furiously, even claiming to be “the father” of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF).  Maybe he thinks it stands for “I’m Very Fat”, or “Incoherent Vacuous Fraudster”.

At any rate, back to the polls…

The latest national poll from Marist — an A-rated pollster — has Harris leading Trump 52-47, a 5-point margin.  She has made a three-point gain in a month.  According to Dash Dobrovsky, “Harris isn’t just running a campaign; she’s spearheading a movement.”

Until this election, Trump’s greatest support has come from non-college white voters. Now that support is dropping.  Eight years ago, he was ahead in that group by 33 points; four years ago, he won it be 31 points…today, he’s only up by 27 points.  It is still a significant advantage, but he can’t afford to lose anyone at this point, and it indicates a lowering of enthusiasm among his core cringe elements.

Speaking of losing supporters, it seems that this time around Green Party candidate Jill Stein is pulling voters away from Trump.  I have been getting many negative views on Ms. Stein in the feed-back, but one good thing she has done is to sink Trump’s support even lower, dropping him from 47% to 46%. 

The media is describing the polls as neutral, with neither candidate rising above the margin of error.  Our Substack colleague Shankar Narayan says that while the media can see the polls, they are pushing a different narrative about their meaning.  The polls show Harris beating Trump by 48 to 45%, with her support coming from females (52% to 42%, Blacks (76% to 11%), and Hispanics (60% to 35%).  The single category she doesn’t own is White Males (lagging by 3%). 

Trump’s struggles have not yet broken into the media narrative.  They are saying that the two candidates are locked in a statistical tie.  As Narayan calculated it, however, Harris is forecast to come out with an Electoral College win of 289 votes!

I asked Narayan his view on why the media takes the lean it does.  His answer was brutal:  Money.

The media story is designed to create duress for coalition voters: “Negative stories get a lot of engagement as people get worried and get the urge to act on it. The entire media is gravitating little by little towards the Fox way of doing things.”

In this they are unwittingly aided by the way polling is done: the poll questions are based on an ever-wider array of subjective assumptions.  According to forecaster Brian Klass, “Nobody knows what’s going to happen on November 5th. Not you, not me, not the betting markets, not Nate Silver.  It’s impossible to know.”

My hero Allan Lichtman confidently declares that Kamala Harris will win the race for the White House. He has a set of 13 true-or-false questions, which he calls “keys,” that have given him the correct answer for every race since 1984.  His forecast:  Kamala Harris.

So the race is with Kamala. 

But one thing is certain:  the polls can’t vote.

Only we can vote; only we can change the world.

Let’s get out there and pile the Harris votes so high that ALL the pollsters will get a shock!  

We will confirm the picture of MAGA: an odd, out-of-touch assortment of Hitlerian relics in an attic in Anytown.  Trump says that fascism work better than democracy, maybe his remaining Believers will be lined up and taught to salute.

I know Harris wants to forgive everyone and bond into a big happy family but I actually want to Gloat.  It’s petty, but they deserve it…and it will feel good!

So vote, and gloat!  Satisfaction can come from such petty little things.