Twelve Reasons Why 2024 Will Be A Better Year

Dec 31, 2023

It is often a media habit to list all the bad things that happened in the past year. Making a list of bad things is easy, but it leaves readers with the thought that if my media gurus think this way, then what am I looking forward to in 2024.

It will be hard for 2024 to be a better year than 2023, which got the highest average rating of any year in the past four years. Those same Americans think that 2024 will be an even better year. Here are a dozen reasons why you should enjoy your beverage as we welcome in 2024…

First, world poverty is going down. The lives of more than 80 per cent of the world’s population are being transformed, within merely thirty to forty years. There are more than a billion fewer people living below the International Poverty Line of $2.15 per day today than in 1990. On average, the number declined by 47 million every year, or 130,000 people each day. When you raise that toast on New Year’s Eve you will be increasing the wealth of tomorrow’s 130,000 people; do your part!

Second, the driver for the increase in wealth is, in the words of Surjit Bhalla in his book “The New Wealth of Nations”, education. Human capital. Education is cheap and universally available. It has no natural limits like a scarce mineral or oil. Around 90 percent of the world’s population had completed a primary education in 2020, whereas 66 percent had attained a secondary education.

Third, education is the big social gender-equalizer. Education overturns more than poverty. Across the world, women constituted less than 25 per cent of the world’s population attending college in 1900; in 1980, this percentage was 41 per cent; in 2014, the fraction had risen to around 48.7 percent. Lowering the level of testosterone in decision-making can only be a good thin.

Fourth, as the world population grows, our resource base grows. Resources are just things we have figured out how to use. Oil is yesterday’s resource, but we are now moving to renewable resources. The base-line is the computer chip, made of silica. Sand. The more brains — people — we have that we can apply to our problems, the better off we are.

Fifth, our transportation system is following the renewable energy path. EVs make up one in every seven cars driven today. More than 90% of vehicle-owning households in the United States would see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy — the gasoline powers their cars, SUVs and pickups — if they switched to electric vehicles.

Sixth, the big resource used in EVs — lithium for the batteries — is following Rule Four above: it is a very ‘available’ resource. One of the biggest lithium deposits ever found is in a volcanic rock in the US.

Seventh, there is a merger between transportation and habitation. Some of the new EVs, like the Ford Lightning, can power a home for two days if the regular grid goes down. Likewise, it can be powered by the grid when the network is working.

Eighth, we have been through a series of crises that seemed world-ending at the time, and yet have not mattered a darn in the bigger scheme of things. We are all veterans. The fact that we exist is proof that all our ancestors back to Amoeba One have been survivors. We are the refined result of champions. Next year will be even better.

Ninth, we may have turned a corner with environmental pollution. Global efforts to slow a runaway climate catastrophe may have reached a critical milestone in 2023 with the peak of global carbon emissions from energy use, according to experts. A growing number of climate analysts believe that 2023 may be recorded as the year in which annual emissions reached a pinnacle before the global fossil fuel economy begins a terminal decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted for the first time that the consumption of oil, gas and coal would peak before 2030 and begin to fall as climate policies took effect. “It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA.

Emissions from generating electricity plateaued over the first half of 2023, and the steady rise of wind and solar power is on track to outpace the world’s growing demand for energy — meaning renewables will start to displace fossil fuels on a global scale.

So 2024 will see a further rise in global education, global wealth, gender equality, resource availability, carbon reduction, transformation to renewable energy,

Tenth, the world is still largely a peaceful place. The countries involved directly in a “hot war “ — Russia, Israel, and Ukraine — represent only 2.5% of the global population. Even if we expand that to include indirectly involved countries — the US, EU, both Koreas, Turkey, and Iran — the percentage is still very low: 12.6%. I have not included China because in spite of all the hoopla the most I can find that has actually been shipped to Russia are 1,000 rifles and some drone components, which it ships to both sides. In view of China’s GDP of 17.7-trillion, it is not even an accounting error.

Eleventh, democracy is still the name-of-the-game in world politics. Even countries that are not democratic are frantic to make themselves look like they are. Putin claims he is in an “election”. This fools no one, but it is the game even he has to play in order to look legitimate. Democracies — real ones — still make up the majority of world governments. And that will increase as the levels of global education increase. And a country that switches from non-democracy to democracy achieves about 20% higher GDP per capita over the next 30 years.

Lastly, in the US, jobs will continue to grow because it is in the grip of Democrats instead of Republicans. Jobs growth is higher when the country goes Blue. Hopefully that will continue from 2024–2028.

And a bonus ‘lucky thirteen’: the race into space is heating up again. Half a dozen American companies are carrying out their own space programs, and the governments of India, China and the EU are pushing ahead as well. 2024 will see some of those visions take flight, as it were, with landings on other solar surfaces. Perhaps this doesn’t matter to everyone, but I am looking forward to the day when costs go down and I can float in the freedom of space. One small boost for humans, one giant leap for weight-loss. Sign me up.

OK, that won’t happen for me in 2024.

But the other big unstoppable trends will continue through 2024, and we will continue to be a bit better than we were the year before.

Yes, there are still plenty of things to list as negatives, and no doubt the coming year will see article after article doing just that. But for a moment this evening, reflect on the fact that the bigger trends are all upwards.

And revel in the notion as the New Year approaches, that you have enough money to make it through an entire year! (think about it…).

Best wishes to all!