Moderate David Crowley won the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, defeating a democratic socialist who fell short by less than 1% of the votes cast. Crowley will face Republican Tom Tiffany in November to be the next governor.
He beat Francesca Hong, a 37-year-old state assemblywoman, who is a progressive candidate. Her score was remarkable, given than some one-third of Democrats now identify as democratic socialists – so she added to those numbers to come so close to victory.
It had been reported that ‘centrists’ and consultants think that Hong can’t win in November. The Republicans secretly have a different view – they are very afraid of her!
The Republicans are lucky that Hong did not win.
“We Need To Take Francesca Hong Seriously,” reads the subject line of a memo prepared for U.S. Tiffany’s gubernatorial campaign by Republican consultants.
Leaked and reported on by Jessie Opoien of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the April memo correctly anticipated Hong’s dominance in the primary. It also described her as “uniquely dangerous in the general election” and that “general election strengths are formidable.”
Per the memo, as reported by Opoien:
Hong’s “combination of grassroots momentum, unapologetically progressive ideology, and a platform centered on high turnout makes her uniquely dangerous in the general election.”
Hong’s platform is “broadly popular and difficult to counter.”
Her agenda “is built around kitchen-table issues that poll strongly with independents, working families, and even some rural voters.”
If her moderate colleagues had been elected instead, the Republicans would have had less to fear. “More moderate and establishment Democratic alternatives would likely produce lower base motivation and depressed turnout.”
Thus the Republicans: Hong is the conqueror.
Wisconsin is one of the most significant tests for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has surged in recent primaries. However, their victories have largely been contained to safely Democratic areas like New York City, Philadelphia and Denver. Wisconsin tested the DSA’s electability in a key battleground state. It came so close.
The DSA is in my view not “socialist”. It is a bit left of centre, like all the other governing parties in the civilized world; only in America could it be considered “socialist”. America is the place where businesses get a “bail out” during a downturn, but poor people get nothing for basic healthcare.
The “democratic socialism” label may not be a strength in a general election, except among the far-left quadrant. More than twice as many Wisconsin voters viewed democratic socialists unfavorably as favorably, 55 percent to 25 percent. Almost everyone, including more moderate Democrats, are either negative or still making up their minds about ‘socialism’. Independents view democratic socialism negatively by 4 to 1. Republicans by 99-1.
The side to the democratic socialist agenda that does have significant appeal is centered on expanding the government social safety net, providing Medicare for all, and hiking taxes on the highest incomes. These are the ideas that helped carry El-Sayed to his primary win and Zohran Mamdani to his victory.
These are not ‘socialist’ ideas.
In Canada, they would fit right in with the general label of ‘societal well-being’. The people who carry that banner are called Liberals, not socialists.
The pre-election Wisconsin polling was off as badly as it was in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed clinched the Democratic Senate nomination by a tighter than expected margin – a margin that kept me up until 2:00 AM. Hong had led the pre-election polling by 38% to 16%. Her odds of winning were 92%, according to some experts.
We have entered a realm where conventional polling is not much of a guide.
The Republicans’ nominee ,Rep. Tom Tiffany faces an unfortunate world where the popularity of the leader is so far down in the swamp that Trump has to salute crayfish.
Like Michigan, Wisconsin has been called a ‘swing state’. Wisconsin is polarized between quite progressive Democrats and savagely wild Republicans. This is the state of both “Fighting Bob” La Follette and ‘commie conspiracy’ addict Joe McCarthy; their current senators are polar opposites: Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson. It is the birthplace of the Republican Party and of the socialist movement (Victor Berger, the first Socialist elected to Congress, came from Wisconsin).
Pause for a moment and consider the clear agenda of Fighting Bob. La Follette’s chief goal was to break the “combined power of the private monopoly system over the political and economic life of the American people”, and he called for government ownership of railroads and electric utilities, cheap credit for farmers, the outlawing of child labor, stronger laws to help labor unions, protections for civil liberties, and a 10-year term for members of the federal judiciary. In the 1920’s he pulled off one of the best third-party performances in U.S. history. So Wisconsin is primed and ready.
Crowley, 40, has served as Milwaukee County executive since 2020. Before that, he was a member of the state Assembly representing an urban Milwaukee district. Crowley’s campaign also spent $4 million on ads during the primary — much more than any of his Democratic rivals. By comparison, the Hong campaign and groups supporting her spent less than a half-million dollars on ads.
“When we think about this state and how we move forward, we need someone who’s not just going to fight back, but ... who can also sit at the negotiating table and be able to work with folks who want to deliver for those that we represent,” Crowley said
Some Crowley supporters had feared that he will face racist backlash; Wisconsin has never elected a governor who is not a white man.
As noted in The Hill:
“Crowley’s win offers center-left and more mainstream Democrats their first major win in recent weeks after several of their preferred picks lost in high-profile races like Michigan Senate Democratic primary. Still, the mixed bag of primary results tonight — and more broadly this cycle — show that questions over the party are nowhere near settled.“
Progressives still had a good night in Wisconsin after Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) defeated center-left Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in the Democratic nod for the Minnesota Senate seat left open by retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.).
Hong said she would campaign with Crowley, demonstrating Democratic unity against the larger Trump threat.
And November IS looming. 83 days from August 12th.
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In the coming weeks we will look at WHAT IF THE PRESIDENT IS AN IDIOT – Trump, power and the death of serious politics – How a reality show became a presidency.
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Aaaaalmost. The future of the US are democratic socialist policies if you want universal healthcare, corporate and organization money out of politics, health and environmental regulations based on science, safety regulations in the workplace, economic equality, i.e, affordability, for the non-millionaires, and graduated higher taxes on the wealthiest 5-10% in assets. First, vote for any Democrat, unless they're a feckless Fetterman, to get Republicans out of power. Then watch the tide turn for progressives against corporate centrists and moderates. Progressives are reading the room, even in rural areas.
Thanks, Barry, for this excellent analysis!
Simon Rosenberg is a long-time Democratic political strategist and hosts The Hopium Chronicles on Substack. Here is Simon’s takeaway on recent Democratic primaries:
💙 A Black gubernatorial nominee in Wisconsin. A native woman is now our Senate nominee in Minnesota. A Muslim man is our Senate nominee in Michigan. A moderate, “Establishment Democrat” is our nominee for Governor in Minnesota. A younger mayor unseated an incumbent House Member in Connecticut. Party backed candidates won House primaries all across the country……
My big takeaway from the last few weeks is that Democrats are “embracing the rainbow,” a phrase we use here that describes an approach to pluralistic politics that welcomes - and embraces - the broad diversity of our coalition, and of our nation. For a coalition to be healthy over time every part of the coalition needs to get wins, and boy oh boy has every part of our coalition had wins in recent months.
My hope is that whatever type of Democrat you are you can see yourself in the Democratic leaders who have emerged in the past year, giving you a reason to enthusiastically vote this November. We’ve talked here about the need for the Democratic Party to evolve, grow, improve, and to build our next thing. I think we can say now looking back at the elections over the past 19 months that we are seeing a new Democratic Party emerging, something that feels fresh, different, younger, more dynamic, and just better.
In a change election it has become important that Democrats be seen as changing too. And we are. And this perception that we are changing will make us more appealing, and more likely to win this November. 💙