The Backlash To Putin’s New Partnership With North Korea
South Korea is angry, it may supply Ukraine, and it’s a monster.
Putin keeps painting himself into smaller and smaller corners.
The puzzling thing to sane observers, is that he can (surely?) see the consequences, but he does it anyway.
The Government of South Korea has just announced that it is reconsidering its ban on military aid to Ukraine, depending on what Russia does in North Korea.
It is doing this because Putin has signed an agreement – a security partnership – with North Korea, to lock the two nations together in future wars. They will “provide mutual assistance in case of aggression.” Putin specifically mentioned supplying high-precision weapons to North Korea, and the imminent arrival on the battlefield of a contingent of Norh Korean military engineers.
South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin slammed the Russia-North Korea treaty as a violation of international law. His government, he stated, would rethink its ban on sending lethal weapons. He called the Russian presence a “red line” that could trigger South Korean action.
The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated: “It’s absurd that two parties with a history of launching wars of invasion — the Korean War and the war in Ukraine — are now vowing mutual military cooperation on the premise of a pre-emptive attack by the international community that will never happen.”
In fact, the South Koreans sound downright vengeful: "We will consider whatever steps Russia would find most painful." Putin has just demonstrated that South Korea's self-restraint in supporting Ukraine means little to nothing to Putin.
Adding to the balance against Putin’s brilliant coup is that Japan has joined the US and South Korea in condemning the Russian move.
South Korea, Japan and the US pledged to “further strengthen diplomatic and security cooperation” to counter threats from North Korea, with Washington promising its military support for South Korea and Japan remains “ironclad”.
A solid display of what this means is the docking of the nuclear-powered USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft in the port of Busan as part of trilateral exercises with South Korea and Japan.
Speculation that China would enter into a similar three-way pact with Russia and North Korea has not borne fruit. It appears that China is leery of being tied to Russian decisions. It’s easier for China to just sit out the Ukrainian war and pick up the pieces of Russia when it falls apart.
China’s goal, in fact, seems to be the opposite: develop closer ties with Europe, Japan and South Korea.
Once again, Putin has pulled its foes together in a tighter military pact than they had had before. We’ve seen this happen already: NATO.
Putin’s move has obliterated a military technology cooperation agreement between South Korea and Russia that was ratified in 1997. It concerned South Korea’s economic assistance to Russia. The key predicate condition of the agreement was the severance of Russia’s direct military aid and assistance to North Korea.
Now Putin has stepped on that egg.
China, too, cannot be happy with this outcome, as it also affects Chinese plans for Taiwan.
The difference in value that the Japan-US-South Korea trio brings to Ukraine is shocking – and a reflection of the power of a “free” market over an autocracy controlled by a family.
South Korea is the world's ninth-largest arms exporter. It provides quality goods quickly and affordably. It is pushing to become the fourth-largest producer. It can turn out weapons faster and cheaper than the US. It has developed cutting-edge weaponry like fourth-generation tanks, 4.5 generation fighters, and self-propelled howitzers.
In fact, South Korea has already provided Ukraine indirectly with more shells, via the US, than all the shells provided by Europe.
"North Korea's weapons help Russia barely sustain the war, but South Korea's weapons could change the entire landscape of the conflict," stated Cho Han-beom, of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
His voice was augmented by political science professor Park Won-gon of the Ewha Woman’s University who pointed out that the lethal weapons the South could supply to Ukraine include its much-touted Chunmoo multiple rocket launch systems, K9 howitzers and K2 tanks. He noted that “In terms of the impact on the course of the war, the North’s supply of ammunition to Russia would pale in comparison if the South provides Ukraine with lethal weapons, which would help Ukraine make a breakthrough in the war.”
Putin’s threats to retaliate against South Korea are getting tired, according to Suwon University Professor Ilya Belyakov. He said Putin was resorting to his typical “bluffing” tactics toward South Korea and the West: “Russia has kept back-pedalling in its threats against the West as it has become mired in an endless war in Ukraine. It has nothing much in the way of punishing South Korea.”
South Korea could immediately spare 3 million 105 mm artillery shells for Ukraine; during Vietnam these lighter units made for great mobility on rough terrain. Ukraine currently fires some 70,000 shells per month; the new supply could boost that rate to 300,000 (Russia’s firing rate) and keep that going for a decade without any other shells.
In a sense, the two Koreas would have a proxy war going on, some 9,000 km from their borders.
Putin responded with his usual thoughtless belligerence: if South Korea helps Ukraine Russia "will... [make] decisions which are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea."
Charming way to win over friends.
South Korea fired back: we will adjust our aid to Ukraine in response to what you do for North Korea.
Seoul is so miffed with Putin that it is currently actively expanding into the European arms market. It supplies weapons to Poland – a $13.7-billion contract. At a Hanwha Aerospace factory on South Korea's southern coast, six huge automated robots and more than 150 production workers are churning out 47-ton K9 “Thunder” howitzers destined for Poland. Poland ordered 212 K9s last year and Seoul has already delivered 48 of them — a pace no one else can achieve. The self-propelled guns use NATO-standard 155mm ammunition, have computerised fire-control systems, are designed to easily integrate into command and control networks, and offer performance comparable to more expensive Western options. Seoul has already approved export licences for Poland to provide Ukraine with Krab howitzers, which are built with South Korean components.
It now aims for Romania: promoting its tanks, self-propelled artillery and IFVs. Norway and Sweden are being offered rocket launchers.
The threat to South Korea is that Putin may transfer satellite and nuclear submarine technology to the North.
It may not be a surprise to hear that South Korea has a larger economy than North Korea.
It’s a bit of a shock to realize that it has a larger economy than Russia.
It is the tenth-ranked largest economy in the world.
In a satellite photo the difference is striking between the two Koreas – the North is shrouded in darkness and the South sparkles with activity.
The North Koreans are evidently not worried, though; one of their editorials says that “the essence of our society is not on flashy lights."
It is apparently on sitting in the darkness, waiting for dawn.
It also has half the population of the South, a life expectancy of a decade less per person, a GDP per capita of $1,800 (v.s. $32,400 for South Koreans) and an infant mortality rate that is six times higher.
It does spend a higher portion of its GDP on its military (22% vs. 2.8%) but the difference in the size of the economies means that the resulting expenditure in dollars comes to $8.2-billion, compared to the South’s $26.1-billion…ten times more for one-tenth the GDP draw.
North Korea is isolated, closed and tightly controlled, while South Korea is open and one of the most advanced in the world.
Putin made a huge mistake in aggressively waving his new alliance with North Korea in the face of the South. Red flags and bulls.
The contrast with his Ukrainian rival Zelensky is stellar: Zelensky has just pulled off a Summit with 100 nations in attendance.
This is even worse than Putin’s continuing boast about his relationship with China – which has actually stayed neutral in terms of war supplies.
Except that it is selling thousands of drones and drone parts to Ukraine…no doubt for hobbyists.
China has not joined in with the new Russia-North Korea partnership.
Further, Russia’s relationship with China and North Korea is not playing well with any of the other Asian countries, either. Putin is grasping at any friendly hands he can see, ignoring the hostility that the move generated everywhere else.
This kind of blindness has characterized his regime from the start. Ten years after Russia invaded Crimea, the guns are still shooting and a million Russians have been killed or disabled. This is not good in a country with a shrinking population, a sliding standard of living and an overwhelming military – not social - expenditure.
As Dylan Comelick points out in a recent Substack, “To oppose North Korea’s aggressive moves, South Korea would have to dedicate about … running the math here … two whole hours of dedicated war production per year.”
Speaking of dedication, the US has delayed planned deliveries of advanced munitions like Patriot missiles to its other allies, so they can be priority-mailed to Ukraine. They also gave their blessing for Ukraine to use them to hit targets inside Russia.
Defiance of Putin has become so widespread that American defence giant Northrop Grumman has announced plans to establish a facility for production of medium-caliber ammunition in Ukraine. It was less an announcement than a slip-of-the-tongue by a company representative in a Paris conference. Just a minor thing.
Northrop Grumman is the third largest defense company in the world.
Opposing global companies like this is the internationally isolated Putin-Kim couple, whose alliance seems to owe as much to the lonesome call of “you haven’t got a date either?...Let’s hook up,” as it does to strategic intention.
Few nations around the world are regarding Russia’s alliance with North Korea as a move made from strength.
Russia’s friends are a shrinking team…a coalition of the failing, as the Economist notes. The gang of opportunists includes Boliva, Sudan, Syria and North Korea, with some scattered applause from China (but no action). China always goes its own way, not Putin’s way.
India is trying to maintain its status as a neutral, despite being an opportunistic buyer of Russian oil when the price is low enough.
It is a funny thing about internal decision-making when the plans go wrong: Russian groups that could benefit from removing Putin and his toxic decision-making do not seem inclined to get up and act. When Hitler’s war was collapsing in 1944 and the enemy was closing in, a few groups tried to assassinate him. The same in true in Russia today. When Putin’s former friend Prigozhin was closing in on Moscow and the Russian army had left the field - as did Putin – the crowds of citizens cheered Prighozin on but one else in the Russian hierarchy moved a muscle. Fear freezes intention.
Putin is one of the worst rulers in Russia, ever. He made Ukraine an enemy without any need, he underestimated Ukraine and is now locked in a losing war, he is facing rising terrorist threats within Russia, the infrastructure of the country is falling apart as the military eats up whatever is left in the budget, his enemies are more united than ever – even Switzerland broke its 200-year neutrality to join in anti-Russian sanctions – and he triggered the first armed rebellion in Russia since 1917.
Now he’s proudly posing beside one of the weakest and most-despised rules in Asia because he has no other friends.
Sometimes, that’s a signal to quit, not to double down.
We are left wondering how long it will be before someone punches his clock…
Thanks for the good analysis. Yes, Putin keeps painting himself into a corner and snuggling up to NK is going to make China nervous - or more nervous than they already were. Putin has already alienated all of Europe and now is doing the same in Asia.