Thanks for the good analysis. Yes, Putin keeps painting himself into a corner and snuggling up to NK is going to make China nervous - or more nervous than they already were. Putin has already alienated all of Europe and now is doing the same in Asia.
Does this not remind you in a way of Gorbachev's premiership, when he made so many concessions to the West than the Soviet Union broke up? He, unlike Putin, did it for good reasons; Putin is an incompetent power-monger. But the result will be the same" another collapse and shrinking of Russia. How do you see it?
Russia has a long history of being an orphan in the world. They are neither the West nor the East… they fit into neither and they know it. Peter the Great attempted to modernize Russia and have them adopt European ways. He even abandoned Moscow and built modern St. Petersburg as its new capitol. Catherine the Great, an Austrian, gave it a shot but Russia remained mired in agrarian feudalism while Europe embraced the Industrial Revolution.
Imperialism and mercantilism kicked off the first wave of globalism, but Russia was left with backward Balkan states, a power struggle with the Ottoman Empire who allied with the Germans, and fitful, unprofitable skirmishes in the East with Japan, China, and Korea. Efficient Japan was rapidly westernizing and had imperial ambitions of its own.
Turkey and Germany blockaded Russia in the Black Sea isolating economically isolating Russia so severely triggering the Russian Revolution, the rise of Communism, and a huge brain and wealth drain of the rich and educated to Europe. Radical communism further estranged Russia from the West and was not popular in Asia either. Russia was marooned and largely ignored.
During WWII, Germany invaded the Russian Empire and would have slaughtered the Slavs considering them inferior beings. Britain and the U.S. saved their asses for their own selfish reasons, sacrificing millions of Russians to distract Germany from concentrating on the battle in the West. Russia was not trusted or respected by the Allies, and the coalition fell apart almost immediately after the war morphing into the Cold War, Korean War, and the Chinese Revolution.
Russia pivoted towards Asia but almost immediately a power struggle broke out between them and China almost leading to open warfare. Seeing an opportunity, the U.S. embraced China as a candidate for modernization and eventual democratization again isolating Russia - check and mate.
Isolated and fatally bureaucratic, the USSR collapsed and attempted to form the Russian Federation based on liberal European standards. It was a bridge too far and the economy collapsed into oligarchy leaving diminished Russia further isolated and ashamed clearing the ground for Putin’s brand of authoritarian Slavic fascism. The ill fated Ukraine invasion was designed to showcase Slavic superiority, but has only resulted in Russia becoming a world pariah and rife with self-loathing. They are China’s vassal and I open war with the EU/U.S. - nothing more than, as someone described them, “a filling station with nukes.”
This is a very desperate and dangerous situation. I would compare it to Germany after WWI leading to the rise of German fascism and imperialism. A fascist, self-loathing psychopath with nukes is not a neighbor to have. Will they quietly collapse into themselves again becoming a vassal to China and learn communist capitalism from them, or spitefully immolate in a nuclear WWIII? Toss a coin…
Thanks for the good analysis. Yes, Putin keeps painting himself into a corner and snuggling up to NK is going to make China nervous - or more nervous than they already were. Putin has already alienated all of Europe and now is doing the same in Asia.
Does this not remind you in a way of Gorbachev's premiership, when he made so many concessions to the West than the Soviet Union broke up? He, unlike Putin, did it for good reasons; Putin is an incompetent power-monger. But the result will be the same" another collapse and shrinking of Russia. How do you see it?
I will try to be brief…
Russia has a long history of being an orphan in the world. They are neither the West nor the East… they fit into neither and they know it. Peter the Great attempted to modernize Russia and have them adopt European ways. He even abandoned Moscow and built modern St. Petersburg as its new capitol. Catherine the Great, an Austrian, gave it a shot but Russia remained mired in agrarian feudalism while Europe embraced the Industrial Revolution.
Imperialism and mercantilism kicked off the first wave of globalism, but Russia was left with backward Balkan states, a power struggle with the Ottoman Empire who allied with the Germans, and fitful, unprofitable skirmishes in the East with Japan, China, and Korea. Efficient Japan was rapidly westernizing and had imperial ambitions of its own.
Turkey and Germany blockaded Russia in the Black Sea isolating economically isolating Russia so severely triggering the Russian Revolution, the rise of Communism, and a huge brain and wealth drain of the rich and educated to Europe. Radical communism further estranged Russia from the West and was not popular in Asia either. Russia was marooned and largely ignored.
During WWII, Germany invaded the Russian Empire and would have slaughtered the Slavs considering them inferior beings. Britain and the U.S. saved their asses for their own selfish reasons, sacrificing millions of Russians to distract Germany from concentrating on the battle in the West. Russia was not trusted or respected by the Allies, and the coalition fell apart almost immediately after the war morphing into the Cold War, Korean War, and the Chinese Revolution.
Russia pivoted towards Asia but almost immediately a power struggle broke out between them and China almost leading to open warfare. Seeing an opportunity, the U.S. embraced China as a candidate for modernization and eventual democratization again isolating Russia - check and mate.
Isolated and fatally bureaucratic, the USSR collapsed and attempted to form the Russian Federation based on liberal European standards. It was a bridge too far and the economy collapsed into oligarchy leaving diminished Russia further isolated and ashamed clearing the ground for Putin’s brand of authoritarian Slavic fascism. The ill fated Ukraine invasion was designed to showcase Slavic superiority, but has only resulted in Russia becoming a world pariah and rife with self-loathing. They are China’s vassal and I open war with the EU/U.S. - nothing more than, as someone described them, “a filling station with nukes.”
This is a very desperate and dangerous situation. I would compare it to Germany after WWI leading to the rise of German fascism and imperialism. A fascist, self-loathing psychopath with nukes is not a neighbor to have. Will they quietly collapse into themselves again becoming a vassal to China and learn communist capitalism from them, or spitefully immolate in a nuclear WWIII? Toss a coin…
Well argued and consistent with my take. You should publish this as an article, John...